金信期货日刊-20250728

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 25, 2025, coking coal hit the daily limit four times, and on the reporting day, it hit the daily limit again with a 7.98% increase, closing at 1,259 yuan, becoming the focus of the futures market [3]. - The A - share market's three major indices opened higher and closed lower, with an overall volatile adjustment and a small negative - line close. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7][8]. - Gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, but the long - term upward trend remains. It has adjusted sufficiently on the weekly line and is likely to resume its upward trend [11][12]. - Iron ore has declined continuously at the daily - line level, but the overall black industry is still on an upward trend, and the focus is on protecting profits [15]. - The glass market has no significant change in fundamentals. The recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment, and the upward trend of the bulls continues [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, which is beneficial for the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures, but weak exports may limit its upward momentum [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - Price Performance: On July 25, 2025, coking coal hit the daily limit four times, and on the reporting day, it hit the daily limit again with a 7.98% increase, closing at 1,259 yuan [3]. - Supply - side Factors: The National Energy Administration issued a verification notice on coal mine over - production on July 22, which affected the market's supply expectation. In addition, safety inspections were strengthened after mine accidents in Shanxi in late May and early June, and recent heavy rainfall in major production areas restricted production and transportation. Mongolian coal imports also decreased, widening the supply gap [3]. - Demand - side Factors: Steel mills' profits are considerable, and the molten iron output remains at a high level, with strong demand for coking coal. Coking enterprises have initiated a second price increase, which is likely to be implemented, and downstream procurement is active, supporting the price [3]. - Risk: The actual implementation of the production - capacity verification policy needs to be monitored. If the supply - side pressure does not tighten as expected, the coking coal price may adjust [4]. A - share Market - Market Performance: The A - share market's three major indices opened higher and closed lower, with an overall volatile adjustment and a small negative - line close [8]. - Policy: Relevant ministries and commissions are taking actions to prevent "involution - style" vicious competition [8]. - Outlook: The market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Gold - Price Movement: Gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, but the long - term upward trend remains. It has adjusted sufficiently on the weekly line and is likely to resume its upward trend [11][12]. Iron Ore - Market Environment: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, steel mills' profits are acceptable, and the molten iron output remains high. The industrial chain is in a positive - feedback repair state [16]. - Technical Analysis: Iron ore has declined continuously at the daily - line level, but the overall black industry is still on an upward trend, and the focus is on protecting profits [15]. Glass - Fundamentals: There is no significant loss - induced cold repair in the supply side, the factory inventory is gradually decreasing, but the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and there is no significant change in the fundamentals [20]. - Trend: The recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment, and the upward trend of the bulls continues [19]. Palm Oil - Positive Factors: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, pushing Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. The strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures is beneficial for the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [22]. - Negative Factors: Weak exports of Malaysian palm oil may limit its upward momentum [22].