宏观周报（7月第4周）：反内卷热度持续带动市场情绪-20250728

Macro Overview - The market experienced a significant increase last week, with an average trading volume of 1.8487 trillion CNY, up 302.4 billion CNY week-on-week[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index increased by 2.33% and 2.76%, respectively[2] - Key sectors such as construction materials, coal, and steel performed well, while banking and utilities lagged behind[2] Policy and Economic Indicators - The "anti-involution" policy continues to gain traction, with various industries joining the movement, leading to a surge in commodity futures prices, particularly coking coal and coke[2] - The National Energy Administration initiated a coal mine production inspection to ensure stable coal supply, and the Ministry of Agriculture held a meeting to promote high-quality development in the pig industry[2] - The U.S. reached trade agreements with the Philippines, Indonesia, and Japan, reducing trade negotiation risks[2] Fixed Income Market - Bond market yields rose significantly, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 6.85 basis points[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued to conduct net withdrawals, leading to a rise in funding rates, which constrained bond market performance[2] - The market remains cautious, awaiting further negative developments, although the likelihood of significant tightening is low[2] International Market Dynamics - U.S. stock markets rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.26% and the S&P 500 up 1.46%[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points to 4.38%, while the 2-year yield increased by 7 basis points to 3.93%[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.80%, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected economic fundamentals and trade negotiations failing to meet expectations[2]