Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the weekly market conditions of polyolefins (including plastics, PP, and propylene), with a focus on price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Overall, the upward driving force of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it suggests partial reduction of long positions. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Review and Outlook - 2025 - Week 30 Macro Review: The commodity index and 3P showed certain fluctuations. The whole - week increase was PVC > energy - chemicals > polyolefins > commodities. The market continued to trade on anti - involution policies. PE, PP, and PVC had coal - based proportions of 21%, 23%, and 70% respectively, and old - capacity proportions of 14%, 8%, and 11% respectively [12]. - 2025 - Week 31 Macro Outlook: Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, anti - involution policies, and US tariff changes. Plastic Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The L2509 contract fluctuated between [7224, 7483] this week, with the price rising driven by multiple news on Friday. The closing price was 7456 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [15][19]. - Fundamentals: - Supply: It is expected that next week's production will increase by 30,000 tons. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past 5 years [4]. - Demand: The downstream inventory replenishment willingness is insufficient, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The agricultural film start - up rate has improved marginally [4]. - Strategies: - Single - side: Partially reduce long positions. Focus on the interval [7200 - 7500] for L2509. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold the long LP09 arbitrage. - Hedging: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [5]. PP Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The PP2509 contract fluctuated between [7023, 7239] this week, with the price rising driven by news on Friday. The closing price was 7221 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [56][60]. - Fundamentals: - Supply: It is expected that next week's production will rise to 790,000 tons, and the basis and monthly spread have continued to weaken, with the warehouse receipts reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [7]. - Demand: The downstream start - up rate remains at around 50%, and the plastic - weaving start - up rate has continued to decline [78][80]. - Strategies: - Single - side: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [7050 - 7300] for PP2509. - Arbitrage: Enter the long PP9 - 1 spread or MTO position opportunistically. - Hedging: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [8]. Propylene Weekly Fundamental Analysis - Market Performance: In the first week of propylene's listing, it fluctuated strongly, with the PL01 contract fluctuating between [6501, 6708]. As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton week - on - week [89][92]. - Fundamentals: - Supply: The PDH start - up rate has increased marginally, and the factory inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The supply pressure will continue to increase in the future [93][95]. - Demand: The overall downstream start - up rate has decreased marginally. Most downstream industries maintain a rigid - demand procurement strategy [10]. - Strategies: - Single - side: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [6500 - 6700] for PL2601. - Arbitrage: Hold the short PL1 - 2 spread. - Hedging: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the premium of the futures price [11].
聚烯烃周报:基本面上行驱动不足,多单减持-20250728
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-28 01:37