长江期货尿素周报：投机需求降温，预计先弱后强-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in urea plant maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, with daily production running at 19 - 20 million tons. Agricultural fertilizer demand is sporadic, while compound fertilizer production has been continuously increasing, and it is expected that the demand for raw material replenishment will gradually increase. Other industrial demands remain stable. The inventory of urea enterprises continues to decline, but the rate of decline has significantly slowed down, while the accumulation rate of port inventory has accelerated. The overall supply - demand pattern is neutral. With the cooling of speculative demand for some varieties on Friday night, it is expected that urea prices will first weaken and then strengthen in the short term, with support at 1700 - 1730 and resistance at 1820 - 1850 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price first strengthened and then weakened. On July 25, the closing price of the urea 2509 contract was 1,803 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 3.32%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1,806 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 0.56% [2][4] - The basis of the urea main contract first strengthened and then weakened, with a weekly basis operating range of 0 - 55 yuan/ton. On July 25, the main contract basis in the Henan market was 3 yuan/ton, 48 yuan/ton weaker than the previous week [2][7] - The 9 - 1 spread of urea weakened and turned negative. On July 25, the 9 - 1 spread was - 4 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of - 4 - 32 yuan/ton [2][7] Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 83.35%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.86%, an increase of 2.41 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average urea output was 193,500 tons. The supply remains at a high level [2][10] Cost - The price of anthracite coal has shown a slight adjustment in a stable range. Downstream coal - using enterprises' raw material coal procurement is still mainly for rigid demand, and the acceptance of high - priced coal is generally low. The anthracite lump coal market was tepid, with stable prices, while the slack coal and clean coal markets continued to be strong, and coal prices still had an upward trend [13] Demand - The national summer harvest and sowing are basically completed. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 33.58%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week, rising slightly for three consecutive weeks. Compound fertilizer enterprises are gradually entering the stage of fertilizer preparation and shipment, and they purchase raw material urea on dips. The production of fertilizer enterprises is gradually increasing, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer may continue to rise next week. The demand from other industries such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin remains stable [2][15] Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 733,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, and the de - stocking rate has slowed down. Urea port inventory was 565,000 tons, an increase of 122,000 tons from the previous week, and the port inventory accumulation rate has accelerated. There were 2,523 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 50,460 tons [2][26] Key Points to Watch - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer plants, urea plant production cuts and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]