宝城期货动力煤早报-20250728

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment for thermal coal remains optimistic, and port coal prices are operating strongly. It is expected that coal prices will maintain a strong trend in August [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the market sentiment is optimistic and port coal prices are operating strongly [1]. 3.2 Price Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Black Sector - Supply: As of the period of July 18, the daily average output of raw coal from 462 sample mines nationwide was 5.697 million tons, a slight increase of 10,300 tons per day compared with the end of June. In terms of imports, from July 1 - 14, the seaborne coal arrival volume in China was 10.864 million tons, with an average daily arrival of 776,000 tons, a significant improvement from 608,000 tons per day in June [4]. - Demand: In July, the coal consumption of power plants increased seasonally. As of July 17, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.419 million tons, a weekly increase of 271,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.911 million tons, a weekly increase of 360,000 tons [4]. - Inventory: As of July 24, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.097 million tons, a weekly increase of 112,000 tons [4]. - Conclusion: The peak season and positive news such as "anti - involution" have resonated, driving coal prices to continue rising. With the start of the construction of the super hydropower station on the Yarlung Zangbo River, the market sentiment remains optimistic [4].