铅周报：多空因素交织，铅价窄幅震荡-20250728

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead price of the main SHFE contract fluctuated narrowly last week. Macroscopically, the tariff negotiation made progress, and the domestic anti - involution policy expectation was positive, leading to a good market risk preference. Fundamentally, the supply of lead concentrates and waste batteries did not improve much, and the processing fees of domestic and imported lead concentrates decreased in August, while the price of waste batteries increased slightly, providing strong cost support for the lead price. On the smelting side, the production of some smelters in Henan had not recovered, and the operating rate of electrolytic lead smelters decreased. The production of secondary lead smelters was stable, but the losses expanded after the lead price dropped. On the demand side, some countries in the Middle East imposed tariffs on China's lead - acid battery exports, and the US tariff on Vietnam also affected China's battery exports. The current consumption peak season did not improve significantly, and the downstream maintained a rigid - demand purchasing rhythm. Overall, the favorable macro - environment and cost support boosted the lead price, but stable smelter production, weakened battery export expectations, and under - expected peak - season consumption dragged down the lead price. In the short term, with multiple factors in play, the lead price is expected to remain volatile, waiting for new variables [3][6][7]. Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | July 18th | July 25th | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16820 | 16955 | 135 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2011.5 | 2020.5 | 9 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 8.36 | 8.39 | 0.03 | | | SHFE Inventory | 62335 | 63254 | 919 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 268400 | 266275 | - 2125 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 6.9 | 7.14 | 0.24 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 195 | - 165 | 30 | Yuan/ton | [4] 2. Market Review - The main SHFE lead contract PB2509 fluctuated narrowly last week. Supported by the warm atmosphere in the domestic commodity market and suppressed by high inventories, the contract finally closed at 16955 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.65%. On Friday night, it rose first and then fell. Affected by the weak US dollar, LME lead continued to rebound, but was slightly adjusted in the second half of the week due to warehouse receipts and the US dollar's stabilization. It finally closed at 2020.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.45%. - In the spot market as of July 25th, the price of lead in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets was reported at a discount to relevant contracts. The supply of ex - factory electrolytic lead was limited, and the price was at a premium, while the premium of some high - priced offers decreased. The price of secondary lead was reported at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. - In terms of inventory, as of July 25th, the LME weekly inventory was 266275 tons, a weekly decrease of 2125 tons; the SHFE inventory was 63254 tons, an increase of 919 tons from the previous week. As of July 24th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 7.14 million tons, an increase of 100 tons from Monday and 0.24 million tons from last Thursday. [5][6] 3. Industry News - In August, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal degree, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton; the average imported ore processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars/dry ton. - In June, lead ingot imports were 0.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.53 million tons from May, a month - on - month decrease of 44.97% and a year - on - year increase of 0.32%. Lead ingot exports were 0.42 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from May, a month - on - month decrease of 35.60% and a year - on - year increase of 142.54%. The export volume of lead - acid batteries in June was 18.7446 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 16.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%. [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory status, lead price premium and discount, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss. [10][12][13]