国新国证期货早报-20250728

Variety Views - On July 25, A-share's three major indices declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33% to 3,593.66, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.22% to 11,168.14, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.23% to 2,340.06. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.7873 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index adjusted on July 25, closing at 4,127.16, a decrease of 21.87 [1]. - On July 25, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1,778.4, a rise of 43.9 [1]. - On July 25, the coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 1,283.4 yuan, a rise of 93.8 [2]. Influencing Factors of Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - Coke prices rose and then fell during the day. The third round of price increases in the coking industry was proposed. Coking profits were meager, and daily coking production increased slightly after a continuous decline. Coke inventories decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness increased. Overall, the carbon element supply was still abundant, and downstream molten iron production remained high during the off - season [3]. - Coking coal mine production continued to decline slightly. The spot auction market improved, with rising transaction prices. Terminal inventories increased. Total coking coal inventories decreased month - on - month, and production - end inventories continued to decline. In the short term, inventory reduction was likely to continue. The "anti - involution" policy's impact on the coking coal industry was emerging, and policy implementation should be monitored [3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Concerns about increased supply led to a decline in US sugar prices last Friday. Affected by the weakening of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract closed slightly lower in the night session on Friday. As of the week ending July 22, speculators increased their bearish bets on ICE US raw sugar futures and options. Funds increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 6,879 lots to 117,126 lots [3]. Rubber - Due to large short - term gains, Shanghai rubber adjusted on Friday. As of July 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory was 210,814 tons, a decrease of 2,102 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 182,020 tons, a decrease of 4,620 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 41,530 tons, an increase of 706 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 37,398 tons, an increase of 707 tons [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean good - rate was lower than expected. August is a crucial period for US soybean production. Funds increased weather premiums, providing strong support for US soybeans at the 1,000 - cent mark. A new round of China - US trade negotiations is upcoming. In the domestic market, on July 25, soybean meal continued its weak trend. Domestic soybean supply was abundant, with high crushing volumes. Soybean meal production was high but sales were limited, resulting in a loose supply. Multiple negative factors, such as the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' requirements for pig farms to control production capacity and promote soybean meal substitution, are expected to keep the soybean meal market in a weak and volatile state. Future focus should be on US soybean产区 weather and import conditions [4][6]. Live Pigs - On July 25, live pig futures prices rose slightly. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' symposium signaled production capacity regulation, leading to strong policy expectations in the market. In the short term, the live pig futures market may be relatively strong, but in the long term, it will return to fundamental fluctuations. As of the end of June, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level. From January to May, the monthly number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month, indicating abundant supply in the second half of the year. Currently, live pig consumption is in the traditional off - season, with weak demand. The overall live pig market has a loose supply - demand situation. Future focus should be on policy regulation, live pig slaughter rhythm, and weight [6]. Shanghai Copper - Fundamentally, the decline in copper ore processing fees indicates raw material shortages. The arrival of the consumption off - season has led to a decline in the operating rate of downstream cable enterprises, and inventories at home and abroad have continued to accumulate. The peak of photovoltaic installations has weakened new - energy demand, suppressing prices. In terms of news, Trump's tariff increases on multiple countries have raised trade concerns, and the dovish remarks of Fed officials have limited impact. Short - term downward pressure remains [6]. Iron Ore - On July 25, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.11% to 802.5 yuan. Last week, the shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased slightly, arrivals dropped significantly, and port inventories increased slightly. Molten iron production decreased slightly but remained high. The policy expectations of "anti - involution" and important meetings have boosted market sentiment. However, iron ore prices have risen significantly recently, and it may be in a high - level volatile state in the short term [7]. Asphalt - On July 25, the asphalt 2509 main contract rose 0.78% to 3,615 yuan. Last week, the operating rate of asphalt plants continued to decline, and the planned production of local refineries in August decreased, resulting in a contraction in supply and inventory reduction. Refinery sales increased slightly, but due to rainy weather, demand recovery was slower than expected. Short - term prices will fluctuate [7]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,150 yuan/ton. On July 28, the basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses of the National Cotton Exchange was at least 430 yuan/ton, and cotton inventories decreased by 72 lots compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On July 25, the 2509 log contract opened at 829, with a low of 822, a high of 833.5, and closed at 830, with a decrease of 164 lots in positions. The market is facing increasing pressure at high levels. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 - 820 and the resistance at 850. The spot prices of medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment for the spot market [7][8]. Steel - Recently, the prices of wire rods and screws have been rising. The current market has gone through four stages: sentiment ignition, production reduction support, spot price follow - up, and futures price leading. This rebound coincides with the "anti - involution" movement in multiple industries. The coal mine production inspection notice has strengthened the "anti - involution" expectation, driving up coking coal prices and boosting the sentiment of the black - goods sector. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station has increased expectations of demand expansion. Policy expectations and production - reduction themes have amplified price fluctuations, and the futures market has moved faster than the fundamentals. The prices of cyclical products such as coal and steel have reversed the downward trend since last下半年. Steel prices are in a range - bound state with "cost support and demand ceiling." The key to breaking the situation depends on the strength of demand recovery and policy implementation [8][10]. Alumina - Fundamentally, the disturbances in the Guinea mining area are gradually subsiding, and shipments may increase. The import volume of domestic bauxite has rebounded, and port inventories have been steadily accumulating. The domestic supply is relatively abundant, and bauxite prices are generally stable. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of alumina is slightly increasing at a high level, and smelters are highly motivated to produce. In the short term, the domestic supply is relatively sufficient. In the long term, affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the concentrated release of alumina production capacity may be optimized and adjusted in the future, and long - term supply may converge. Overall, the alumina market may be in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand, and industry expectations are gradually improving [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has approached the industry limit, with only marginal increases. Recently, due to favorable macro - environment factors, aluminum prices have been strong, and smelters have good profits and high operating willingness. The domestic supply is relatively sufficient. On the demand side, the impact of the off - season on downstream industries is intensifying. Although the policy environment provides positive expectations for long - term industry growth and consumption promotion, the short - term weak consumption pressure has led to a slight increase in electrolytic aluminum inventories, a decrease in the proportion of aluminum water, and an increase in ingot production. Overall, the Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and weak demand. Long - term consumption expectations are good, and industry inventories are increasing slightly [10].