Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A short-term target price of $70.4 per barrel for WTI is set, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips and left-side ambushes for Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruption seasons in September when oil prices plunge [2]. - For methanol, short-term prices are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment. As sentiment cools, prices may face downward pressure. Fundamentally, supply pressure will increase marginally, and demand may weaken, so methanol may face correction pressure. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money call options at high prices [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has declined, and enterprise profits have recovered but remain at a low level. Demand is weak, but exports are an important demand increment. Overall, supply and demand are weak, and it is advisable to focus on long positions on dips [6]. - For rubber, prices are likely to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to build positions opportunistically in the medium term, wait and see in the short term, and conduct opportunistic band operations on going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [12]. - For PVC, the current supply is strong, demand is weak, and valuations are high. The fundamental situation is poor, but it is currently strong due to supply reduction expectations and the rebound of the black building materials sector. However, there is a risk of a significant decline when sentiment fades [12]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [14]. - For polyethylene, the short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward trends to high maintenance boosting inventory depletion. Prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [17]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand during the off-season, macro expectations will dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in July [18]. - For PX, the current load remains high, downstream PTA maintenance seasons have ended, and inventory levels are low. With the recovery of polyester and terminal operations, there is little negative feedback pressure on PX in the short term. New PTA devices are planned to be put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory [21]. - For PTA, supply is expected to continue to increase inventory, and processing fees have limited room for operation. However, due to low inventory levels and the recovery of downstream prosperity, the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to follow PX and go long on dips [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply side has increased, and downstream operations have recovered, but the height is still low. Port inventory depletion is expected to slow down. Valuations are relatively high year-on-year, and the fundamental situation has changed from strong to weak. There is short-term pressure on valuations to decline [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Market Quotes: As of Friday, WTI crude oil futures fell $1.09, or 1.65%, to $65.07 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell $0.97, or 1.40%, to $68.39 per barrel; INE crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan, or 0.46%, to 529.4 yuan per barrel [1]. - European ARA Data: Gasoline inventories increased by 0.09 million barrels to 10.15 million barrels, a 0.91% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 13.07 million barrels, a 0.45% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.17 million barrels to 6.34 million barrels, a 2.54% decrease; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.34 million barrels to 5.08 million barrels, a 6.31% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.49 million barrels to 5.87 million barrels, a 7.68% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 40.50 million barrels, a 2.32% decrease [1]. Methanol - Market Quotes: On July 25, the 09 contract rose 38 yuan/ton to 2541 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of -53 [4]. - Fundamentals: Upstream production has bottomed out and rebounded, and enterprise profits are still good. Supply pressure will increase marginally. The MTO profit has declined again, port operations remain stable, and traditional demand is still in the off-season. The market will gradually shift to a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [4]. Urea - Market Quotes: On July 25, the 09 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 1792 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of -2 [6]. - Fundamentals: Domestic production has continued to decline, and enterprise profits have recovered but remain at a low level. The compound fertilizer production has rebounded slowly, demand is weak, and finished product inventories are relatively high. Exports are continuing, and port inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - Market Quotes: On the night of July 25, NR and RU had significant corrections [9]. - Supply Situation: Frictions between Thailand and Cambodia are being negotiated, which may reduce supply concerns [9]. - Inventory Data: As of July 20, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.47% from the previous period; the total inventory of dark rubber was 79.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.23%; the total inventory of light rubber was 49.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.85%. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory was 50.56 (-0.19) million tons [11]. - Operation Suggestions: Rubber prices are likely to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to build positions opportunistically in the medium term, wait and see in the short term, and conduct opportunistic band operations on going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [12]. PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC09 contract rose 135 yuan to 5373 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 5160 (+70) yuan/ton, the basis was -213 (-65) yuan/ton, and the 9-1 spread was -113 (+1) yuan/ton [12]. - Cost Side: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2225 (-25) yuan/ton, the price of medium-grade semi-coke was 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 820 (0) US dollars/ton. The price of calcium carbide decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda was 830 (0) yuan/ton [12]. - Production Situation: The overall PVC operating rate was 76.8%, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.3%, a decrease of 0.5%; the ethylene method was 70.3%, a decrease of 1.7%. The overall downstream demand operating rate was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.8%. Factory inventories were 35.7 million tons (-1), and social inventories were 68.3 million tons (+2.6) [12]. Styrene - Market Quotes: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening [13]. - Market Expectations: The market is looking forward to the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of the month, with a warming macro sentiment and a rising black sector. The cost side still has support. The BZN spread is currently at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward repair space [14]. - Supply and Demand Situation: The supply of pure benzene has decreased slightly, but the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the production of styrene has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased significantly. During the off-season, the overall operating rate of the three S industries has fluctuated and increased [14]. Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The futures price rose. The spot price of polyethylene increased, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [17]. - Inventory Situation: Trader inventories are oscillating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. During the off-season, agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level, and the overall operating rate is oscillating downward [17]. - Operation Suggestions: The short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward trends to high maintenance boosting inventory depletion. With the commissioning of the Huizhou ExxonMobil ethylene plant in July, polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side. It is recommended to hold short positions [17]. Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The futures price rose [18]. - Supply and Demand Situation: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal return of propylene supply. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. During the off-season, with weak supply and demand, macro expectations will dominate the market [18]. - Operation Suggestions: It is expected that polypropylene prices will fluctuate strongly in July [18]. PX - Market Quotes: The PX09 contract rose 106 yuan to 7062 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 18 US dollars to 874 US dollars. The basis was 133 yuan (+46), and the 9-1 spread was 112 yuan (+4) [20]. - Load Situation: China's PX load was 79.9%, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous period; Asia's load was 72.9%, a decrease of 0.7%. Sheng Hong further reduced its load due to upstream device failures, Tianjin Petrochemical was under maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical increased its load. The PTA load was 79.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous period [20]. - Import and Inventory Situation: From mid to early July, South Korea exported 23.8 million tons of PX to China, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 million tons. The inventory at the end of May was 434.6 million tons, a decrease of 16.5 million tons from the previous month [20][21]. - Valuation and Cost: The PXN was 280 US dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 74 US dollars (+10). The current PX load remains high, but the PTA maintenance season has also ended, and the load level is high, with low inventory levels. With the recovery of polyester and terminal operations, there is little negative feedback pressure on PX in the short term. New PTA devices are planned to be put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The current valuation is at a neutral level [21]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA09 contract rose 86 yuan to 4936 yuan, the East China spot price rose 80 yuan to 4895 yuan, the basis was -8 yuan (-8), and the 9-1 spread was 18 yuan (-8) [22]. - Load Situation: The PTA load was 79.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The downstream load was 88.7%, an increase of 0.4%. The terminal texturing load increased by 6% to 67%, and the loom load increased by 3% to 59% [22]. - Inventory Situation: On July 18, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 218.9 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons from the previous period [22]. - Valuation and Cost: The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 19 yuan to 175 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 16 yuan to 303 yuan. Supply is expected to continue to increase inventory, and processing fees have limited room for operation. However, due to low inventory levels and the recovery of downstream prosperity, the negative feedback pressure is small. The PXN is expected to be supported and rise following the improvement of the pattern brought by the commissioning of new PTA devices [22]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG09 contract rose 60 yuan to 4545 yuan, the East China spot price rose 52 yuan to 4582 yuan, the basis was 50 yuan (-8), and the 9-1 spread was 2 yuan (+5) [23]. - Supply Situation: The ethylene glycol load was 68.4%, an increase of 2.2% from the previous period; among them, the syngas method was 74.4%, an increase of 4.2%; the ethylene method load was 64.7%, an increase of 0.9%. Some syngas-based devices restarted, some oil-based devices increased their loads, and some devices switched from EO to EG production. Overseas, the Sharq devices in Saudi Arabia's Jubail region all restarted, and the US Lotte was under maintenance [23]. - Demand Situation: The downstream load was 88.7%, an increase of 0.4%. The terminal texturing load increased by 6% to 67%, and the loom load increased by 3% to 59% [23]. - Import and Inventory Situation: The import arrival forecast was 15.7 million tons, and the East China departure volume on July 24 was 1.1 million tons, with an increase in outbound volume. Port inventories were 53.3 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons [23]. - Valuation and Cost: The naphtha-based production profit was -305 yuan, the domestic ethylene-based production profit was -462 yuan, and the coal-based production profit was 976 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 820 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit-mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 580 yuan [23].
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250728
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-28 01:31