Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference has rebounded due to the anti - involution driving up related sectors and the rebound of the large financial sector. Overseas, the impact of US tariffs is gradually settling. Domestically, attention should be paid to the expectations of the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July, with anti - involution expected to be an important theme. There are opportunities for market style transformation [3]. - In the bond market, although the economic data in the second quarter remained resilient under tariff disturbances, the抢 - export effect may weaken. With weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but recent positive commodity and stock market sentiments have suppressed the bond market [4][5]. - For precious metals, the Fed is expected to make a dovish statement in the July interest - rate meeting, and there is a possibility of more than expected interest rate cuts. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [6]. - In the base metals market, most metal prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, inventory changes, and macro - events. For example, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly weak, while aluminum prices may also show a similar trend [8][9]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices are supported by cost and supply - demand policies, but the market still needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile, and glass and soda ash prices are affected by policies and market sentiment [22][23][25]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber has different views from bulls and bears, and crude oil has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand [34][35][41]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, weather, and policies. For example, the pig price is affected by capacity - reduction policies, and the egg price is affected by supply and demand during the peak season [54][55]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - News: New central enterprise China Yajiang Group's leadership was unveiled; China proposed to establish the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization; National Bureau of Statistics reported industrial enterprise profits; domestic commodity futures closed down at night; Tesla's intelligent driving plan is to be further implemented in China [2]. - Basis Ratio: IF, IC, IM show negative basis ratios, while IH shows positive ones. It is recommended to go long on IF futures on dips, focusing on market style transformation opportunities [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts all declined on Friday. Eurozone and US economic data were released, and the central bank conducted net capital injections [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term bond market is suppressed. Wait for opportunities to enter the market on dips [5]. Precious Metals - Market: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed's July interest - rate meeting is expected to be dovish, and it is recommended to go long on silver [6]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Copper prices fluctuated last week. Inventory changes varied in different exchanges. It is expected to be range - bound and slightly weak, affected by macro - events and supply - demand fundamentals [8]. Aluminum - Market: Aluminum prices fluctuated. Domestic inventory is at a relatively low level, but the price rebound is limited due to the off - season and weak export demand [9]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices declined. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the medium - and long - term price is bearish. There are short - term risks due to market sentiment [10]. Lead - Market: Lead prices rose slightly. Supply is marginally tightened, and if smelter inspections expand, prices may strengthen [11][12]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices were slightly strong. Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [13]. Tin - Market: Tin prices were range - bound and slightly strong. Supply is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, and prices may be range - bound and slightly weak [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: Lithium carbonate prices rose. There is a strong expectation of supply - demand repair, but the real fundamentals have not changed. It is recommended that speculators wait and see [15][16]. Alumina - Market: Alumina prices rose slightly. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [17]. Stainless Steel - Market: Stainless steel prices rose. Supply is tightening, and demand is recovering, but the oversupply situation has not been fundamentally improved [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated. The off - season demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [19][20]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: Steel prices rose. Supported by cost and policies, but need to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [22]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices declined. Supply has rebounded, and demand remains high. Prices are expected to be volatile [23][24]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Glass prices rose. Supported by policies and inventory reduction, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong in the short - term [25]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices rose. Affected by market sentiment, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction exists [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: Both rose and hit the daily limit. Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, but there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades [27][28][29]. Industrial Silicon - Market: Industrial silicon prices rose. Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, but there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, supply is excessive [30][31][32]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - Market: Rubber prices declined at night. There are different views from bulls and bears, and the industry's tire production and inventory data are provided [34][35][36]. - Strategy: It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - Market: Crude oil prices had different trends. It has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [40][41]. Methanol - Market: Methanol prices rose. Affected by market sentiment, and the supply - demand situation is expected to turn to supply increase and demand decrease [42]. Urea - Market: Urea prices rose. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [43]. Styrene - Market: Styrene prices rose. Affected by macro - sentiment and cost, prices are expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward [44][45]. PVC - Market: PVC prices rose. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades [46]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply and demand are both improving, but the inventory reduction is expected to slow down, and there is a risk of valuation decline [47]. PTA - Market: PTA prices rose. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, but demand is expected to pick up. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. Para - Xylene - Market: Para - xylene prices rose. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: PE prices rose. Affected by macro - sentiment and cost, and the inventory reduction is promoted by high - maintenance [50][51]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: PP prices rose. Affected by macro - expectations in the context of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: Pig prices were stable with local fluctuations. The market is affected by capacity - reduction policies, and it is recommended to focus on spread trading opportunities [54]. Eggs - Market: Egg prices declined. Supply is sufficient, but demand is expected to pick up in the peak season. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices were weak. The market is affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to spreads [56][57]. Oils and Fats - Market: Palm oil prices declined. Supported by policies and supply - demand fundamentals, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to take a range - bound view [58][59][60]. Sugar - Market: Sugar prices fluctuated. Domestic import pressure may increase, and prices may decline [61]. Cotton - Market: Cotton prices fluctuated. Affected by factors such as downstream consumption and import quota expectations, there are potential downward risks [62][64].
五矿期货文字早评-20250728
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-28 01:31