宝城期货国债期货早报-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of TL2509 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend. In the long term, a loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the foundation for the upward movement of Treasury bond futures in the medium - to - long term is relatively solid [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation on the weak side" respectively, with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Last Friday, Treasury bond futures oscillated on the weak side. The central bank shifted from net liquidity withdrawal to net liquidity injection, with a net injection of 80.18 billion yuan through reverse repurchase and MLF operations. Due to the mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid increase in stock market risk appetite, the demand for Treasury bonds was weak, and the Treasury bond yield remained high. Considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space for Treasury bond yields is small. In the long run, a loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the medium - to - long - term upward foundation of Treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5].