贸易局势缓和，金银冲高回落

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The change in the trade negotiation situation between the US and other countries is the main factor affecting the precious metal market. The prices of gold and silver fluctuate with the tension and relaxation of the negotiation situation. The agreement reached in the US - Japan tariff negotiation and the positive progress in the US - EU trade negotiation have weakened the safe - haven sentiment and put pressure on precious metals [3]. - The "reciprocal tariff" rate imposed by the US on Japan will be reduced from 25% to 15%. The agreement also includes Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the US and buy $8 billion worth of US goods. The US and the EU are moving towards an agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate for most products [3]. - With the US and Japan reaching a major trade agreement and progress in the US - EU negotiation, the global trade situation is stabilizing, and the risk - aversion sentiment in the market is cooling. It is expected that the short - term precious metal prices will show a weak trend. But the possibility of a change in the Fed's leadership increases market concerns about the stability of monetary policy, and the downward adjustment space for precious metals is expected to be limited [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 777.32 yuan/gram, up 0.30 yuan (0.04%), with a total trading volume of 211,851 lots and a total open interest of 178,255 lots. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 773.61 yuan/gram, down 6.39 yuan (- 0.82%), with a total trading volume of 29,664 lots and a total open interest of 209,130 lots. - COMEX gold closed at $3338.50/ounce, down $17.00 (- 0.51%). - SHFE silver closed at 9392 yuan/kg, up 119 yuan (1.28%), with a total trading volume of 522,479 lots and a total open interest of 634,627 lots. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 9372 yuan/kg, up 4 yuan (0.04%), with a total trading volume of 350,054 lots and a total open interest of 3,380,200 lots [4]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The US - Japan and US - EU trade negotiations have made progress. The US - Japan agreement may become a "template" for other partner countries. The EU is also moving towards an agreement, but is preparing a retaliatory tariff plan. Market sentiment has turned optimistic [6][7]. - US President Trump has criticized the Fed for lacking "courage" and called for a three - percentage - point interest rate cut. The market is worried about the uncertainty of monetary policy. It is generally expected that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the July 29 - 30 meeting, and investors still bet on a possible rate cut in September [7]. - The European Central Bank has kept its three key interest rates unchanged and has not provided any forward guidance on the subsequent policy path, listing "trade disputes" as the main source of policy uncertainty [8]. - This week, focus on the preliminary value of the US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the US July non - farm payrolls report, the US July ISM manufacturing index, the Fed's interest - rate meeting on July 29 - 30, and the progress of the US - EU trade negotiation [9]. 3. Important Data Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest level since mid - April, lower than the market expectation of 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. - The preliminary value of the US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.2 and the composite PMI was 54.6, both at the highest since December 2024. - The preliminary value of the eurozone July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, the highest since July 2022, and the service PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.2, driving the composite PMI to 51, all higher than market expectations. - In the first half of the year, China's gold production was 252.761 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.44%; gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%; the increase in domestic gold ETF holdings was 84.771 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173.73%, and the holdings at the end of June were 199.505 tons [10]. - As of July 25, 2025, the total gold holdings of ETFs were 957.09 tons, an increase of 13.46 tons from last week, 3.70 tons from last month, and 113.92 tons from last year. The silver holdings of ishare were 15,230.43 tons, an increase of 572.22 tons from last week, 364.24 tons from last month, and 890.08 tons from last year [11]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - The data shows the changes in the non - commercial long, short, and net long positions of gold and silver futures from July 1, 2025, to July 22, 2025 [12][15]. - There are multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, and relationships between different factors of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, such as the price relationship between domestic and foreign markets, the relationship between prices and other economic indicators like the US inflation expectation, the dollar index, etc. [16][17][18][19][20][21][23][25][27][28][30][32][34][36]