Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The night - session of domestic futures on Friday saw most contracts decline, with significant drops in coking coal, coke, etc. International markets also showed weakness in various commodities such as precious metals, oil, and base metals [2][3][4]. - In the financial market, the A - share market has shown positive trends, and the capital market is making efforts in research and development. The fixed - increase market in A - shares has entered a new stage of "quantity and quality improvement" [38][41]. - In the industrial field, the government attaches great importance to the development of the artificial intelligence industry, and the domestic chip industry is expected to have a good development this year [42]. - Overseas, there are new developments in trade agreements between the US and the EU, and there are also various diplomatic and economic issues among countries [47][50]. Summaries by Directory Overnight Night - session Market Trends - Domestic futures: Most domestic futures contracts on Friday night closed lower, with coking coal and coke down over 7%, soda ash and glass down over 6%, and caustic soda down over 4% [2]. - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures fell 0.97% to $3338.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.44% to $38.325 per ounce [3]. - International oil prices: US crude oil futures fell 1.65% to $65.07 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.36% to $67.60 per barrel [4]. - London base metals: All LME base metals closed lower, with LME copper down 0.59% to $9796 per ton, LME zinc down 0.40% to $2829 per ton, and LME nickel down 1.33% to $15265 per ton [5]. - International agricultural products: Most international agricultural product futures declined slightly, except for US wheat which rose 0.46% [6]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - Shipping indices: As of July 25, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 54.31 points, and the China Export Containerized Freight Index fell 3.2% [9]. - Fiscal revenue: In the first half of the year, the national general public budget revenue was 11.5566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Tax revenue decreased by 1.2%, while non - tax revenue increased by 3.7% [9]. - Capital market risk prevention: The CSRC aims to prevent risks in key areas of the capital market, including resolving real - estate bond default risks and cracking down on illegal activities [9]. - Industrial profits: From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The mining industry's profit decreased by 30.3%, while the power and other industries' profit increased by 3.3% [9]. - International news: Trump hopes to maintain the nuclear - arms limitation agreement, a US business delegation will visit China, and the US and the EU have reached a trade agreement with a 15% tariff on EU goods [10][11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Regulatory approval: The CSRC has approved the registration of monthly average price futures for linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene on the Dalian Commodity Exchange [15]. - OPEC + meeting: The OPEC + JMMC meeting on Monday is not expected to adjust the current production - increase plan, with 8 members set to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August [15]. Metal Futures - Trading restrictions: From July 28, 2025, non - futures company members or clients are restricted in their daily opening positions in the lithium carbonate futures LC2509 contract [17]. - Product development: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is promoting the research and listing of platinum, palladium, and lithium hydroxide futures, as well as photovoltaic module futures [17]. - Inventory changes: Last week, copper inventory in the SHFE decreased by 11,133 tons, while aluminum, zinc, and other metals' inventories increased [21]. - Market sentiment: Before the US - EU trade negotiation progress, fund managers increased their bullish bets on gold, with net long positions increasing by 19% to 170,868 contracts [22]. Black - Series Futures - Trading restrictions: From July 29, 2025, non - futures company members or clients are restricted in their daily opening positions in coking coal futures contracts [24]. - Industry consensus: Manganese - series alloy production enterprises aim to achieve energy - saving and emission - reduction targets, and have increased manganese ore reserves [24]. - Supply disruption: Ghana's manganese ore shipments have been affected by the rainy season, with significant decreases from May to July [25]. - Industry data: Steel mill data shows changes in blast furnace operating rates, iron ore inventories, and steel prices [26][28]. Agricultural Product Futures - Palm oil exports: Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 decreased compared to the previous month, with a decline of 15.22% according to Amspec and 9.2% according to ITS [31][32]. - Pig farming: As of July 25, self - breeding and self - raising pig farming had a profit of 62.16 yuan per head, while purchasing piglets for farming had a loss of 71.39 yuan per head [32]. - Agricultural product sales: US private exporters reported sales of corn and soybeans to Mexico and South Korea [33]. - Policy support: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and other departments issued a plan to promote agricultural product consumption [35]. Financial Market Finance - Capital market research: The China Capital Market Society was established, aiming to become an important research base for the capital market [37]. - A - share market: The A - share market has reached new highs this year. The market may see a full - scale bull market depending on fundamental improvements, and the ChiNext board may have a catch - up rally [37][38]. - Banking and investment: A - share listed banks have implemented cash dividends, and the private placement market in A - shares has entered a new stage [40][41]. Industry - AI development: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission attaches great importance to the development of the artificial intelligence industry [42]. - Chip industry: With the rapid growth of domestic computing power consumption, the domestic chip industry is expected to have a good development this year [42]. - AI application: China can accelerate the application of artificial intelligence in industries and enhance self - controllability [44]. - Film industry: On July 27, the mainland film box office exceeded 300 million yuan, breaking the 300 - million - yuan mark for the first time in 153 days [46]. Overseas - Trade agreement: The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, but the European Parliament is dissatisfied with it [47][50]. - Diplomatic issues: There are diplomatic issues such as the US - Russia relationship, US - South Korea trade negotiations, and the discovery of drones at a Japanese nuclear power plant [50][51]. International Stock Markets - US stock market: The margin account borrowing balance of US stock investors has exceeded $1 trillion, and there is a risk of a stock market bubble [52]. - European market: After the US - EU trade agreement, the European market rose slightly, and the market's attention will turn to Canada and Mexico [52][54]. Commodities - Futures development: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is promoting the research and listing of multiple futures products and accelerating the research of power futures [55]. - Silver investment: As silver prices rise, more individuals are investing in silver, but there are risks [55]. - Coking coal futures: Coking coal futures, which had a sharp increase, have cooled down after risk warnings and position limits [55]. Bonds - Bond funds: More than half of bond funds had negative performance in July, but there are still trading opportunities in the bond market [56]. Scheduled Events - Economic data releases: Various economic data such as China's Hong Kong trade balance, UK CBI retail sales, etc., will be released at specific times [62]. - News conferences: There will be multiple news conferences on topics such as tax reform, environmental protection, and medical reform [64]. - Trade negotiation: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30 [64]. - New stock subscription: Tianfulong will be available for subscription [64].
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250728
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-07-28 01:44