中辉期货螺纹钢早报-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil): Cautiously bearish [1] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [1] - Coke: Cautiously bearish [1] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bearish [1] - Silicomanganese: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ferrosilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: With the decline of coking coal, the bullish sentiment has cooled down, and the rebar price has followed suit. In terms of supply and demand, both the output and apparent demand have rebounded month - on - month, and the total inventory has slightly decreased, with a relatively balanced supply - demand situation. After a short - term correction, the market may enter a high - level fluctuation phase [1][4]. - Hot Rolled Coil: The output and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly increased. The fundamentals are relatively stable with limited contradictions. The market is trading around factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production - restriction policies. The decline of coking coal has driven the steel price down, and it may enter a high - level fluctuation state later [1][4]. - Iron Ore: Fundamentally, the pig iron output has decreased, the supply side has seen an increase in both arrivals and shipments, and there will be further shipment increments. The port inventory has increased. On the market, after the position - limit of coking coal, the price has dropped significantly, and the market sentiment has turned cautious. The short - term market may decline [1][6]. - Coke: After the rapid rise of coking coal, the increase of coke has lagged behind. Coke enterprises are still in a loss state, and their production enthusiasm is not high. The supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, and the inventory is relatively stable. With the rapid decline of coking coal, coke has followed the correction [1][10]. - Coking Coal: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has tightened the position - opening limit for coking coal, and the market sentiment has calmed down, with the market price dropping rapidly. In terms of supply and demand, the domestic coking coal output has generally rebounded recently, and the absolute level is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory has transferred from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory is stable. The impact of the energy bureau's inspection on over - production on output may be limited. After the market's correction, it may enter a calm period, and the market may decline periodically due to little change in fundamentals [1][14]. - Silicomanganese: The fundamentals have relatively limited contradictions. The strengthening of coal at the cost end strongly supports the alloy price. Driven by short - term sentiment, the price may still have room to rise [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Last week, both supply and demand increased. The factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, and the near - end warehouse receipt pressure is obvious. Driven by short - term market sentiment, the price may still have room to rise. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may still be under pressure [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Price Information: The latest prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot, as well as their price changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of rebar 01 is 3399 with a rise of 46, and the latest price of hot - rolled coil 01 is 3518 with a rise of 46 [2]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Rebar output and apparent demand have rebounded month - on - month, and the total inventory has slightly decreased; hot - rolled coil output and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly increased [4]. - Operation Suggestion: After a short - term correction, the rebar market may enter a high - level fluctuation phase, and attention should be paid to whether the important meeting at the end of the month will reiterate the anti - involution policy. The hot - rolled coil market may enter a high - level fluctuation state later [5]. Iron Ore - Price Information: The price range is [760, 810] [1]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Fundamentally, the pig iron output has decreased, the supply side has seen an increase in both arrivals and shipments, and the port inventory has increased [6]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions [7]. Coke - Price Information: The latest prices of coke futures contracts and spot, as well as their price changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of the coke 1 - month contract is 1811.0 with a rise of 25.5 [9]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Coke enterprises are still in a loss state, and their production enthusiasm is not high. The supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, and the inventory is relatively stable [10]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish [11]. Coking Coal - Price Information: The latest prices of coking coal futures contracts and spot, as well as their price changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of the coking coal 1 - month contract is 1318.5 with a rise of 54.0 [13]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The domestic coking coal output has generally rebounded recently, and the absolute level is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory has transferred from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory is stable [14]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish [15]. Iron Alloys - Price Information: The latest prices of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon futures and spot, as well as their price changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of silicomanganese 01 is 6478 with a rise of 458 [17]. - Supply - Demand Situation: For silicomanganese, the output and operating rate have continued to rise, with more restarts in southern regions. For ferrosilicon, the output and operating rate have also continued to rise, with both maintenance and restarts in major production areas. The factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level [18]. - Operation Suggestion: For silicomanganese, pay attention to the trends of leading varieties such as coking coal; for ferrosilicon, the price may still be under pressure in the medium term [19].