国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to have a bullish and volatile trend supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to have a bullish and volatile trend due to sector - wide market resonance [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to show a strong trend, affected by energy consumption, carbon emissions information, and industry "involution" information respectively [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are predicted to have wide - range fluctuations as market sentiment is realized [2][14]. - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with a volatile trend as daily consumption recovers [18]. - Logs are likely to have a fluctuating and repeated trend [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing price was 802.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton (-1.05%). Imported and most domestic spot prices decreased. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4]. - News: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China" [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: Futures prices of RB2510 and HC2510 increased, with trading volume and open interest rising. Spot prices in major regions also increased. Some basis and spread values changed [6]. - News: Steel Union's weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the price law amendment [7][8]. - Trend Intensity: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased significantly. Spot prices of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose by 20 yuan/ton. Various price differences changed [11]. - News: Iron alloy online reported price ranges of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions, and manganese ore inventory increased [12]. - Trend Intensity: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Futures trading volume and open interest of coking coal and coke changed. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke varieties increased. Basis and spread values also changed [14]. - News: There were price changes in northern port coking coal quotes and the Fenwei CCI metallurgical coal index. Regarding open interest, for coking coal JM2509, long positions increased by 33,862 lots and short positions increased by 38,709 lots; for coke J2509, long positions decreased by 1,156 lots and short positions decreased by 130 lots [14][15][16]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16]. Steam Coal - Fundamentals: The previous day's ZC2507 contract had no trading. Southern port and domestic production area prices were provided. Open interest of the ZC2507 contract had no change [19][20]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [21]. Logs - Fundamentals: Futures prices of log contracts increased slightly, while trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot prices of most log varieties were stable, with some showing small changes [23]. - News: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the price law amendment [25]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [25].