国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250728

Report Information - Date: July 28, 2025 [1][4][9][12] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy [1] Core Views - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Commodity prices fell during the night session on Friday. Pay attention to the transmission of pessimistic sentiment [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment is declining. Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline [2][12] - Polysilicon: Sentiment is declining [2][12] Industry - Specific Summaries Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 124,360 yuan, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,030 yuan. There were also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, and various spreads [4] - Macro and Industry News: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan for 2025 is higher than that of 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia stopped production [4][5][6][7] - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 80,520 yuan, with detailed data on trading volume, open interest, and various spreads and prices in the lithium - salt industrial chain [9] - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange limited the daily opening volume of the LC2509 contract [10][11] - Trend Intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,725 yuan, and that of the PS2509 contract was 51,025 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices in the industrial chain, as well as inventory and cost data [12] - Macro and Industry News: In the first half of the year, Zhejiang purchased 126 million green certificates, equivalent to 12.6 billion kWh of electricity [14] - Trend Intensity: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon trend intensities are - 1 [14]