镍周报：宏观预期改善，镍价重心上移-20250728

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Trade tensions are easing, with the US initial jobless claims continuing to weaken and the labor market being moderate, leading to a positive macro - expectation. The nickel price is expected to shift upward due to potential macro improvements [3][11]. - Fundamental aspect: Indonesian nickel ore supply is increasing, and the cost pressure is weakening. Stainless - steel prices have rebounded under domestic policies, driving nickel - iron prices to stabilize, but cost pressure still exists, and steel mill production has no obvious increase. The nickel sulfate market is active but with stable prices. The supply of pure nickel remains high, and market sentiment is cautious [3]. - Future outlook: The macro situation is expected to improve further, while the fundamentals have no obvious improvement expectation. The nickel price may shift upward driven by the macro factors [3][11]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Last Week's Market Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 122,550 yuan/ton to 124,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,810 yuan/ton; LME nickel price dropped from 15,523 dollars/ton to 15,320 dollars/ton, a decrease of 203 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 164 tons to 21,947 tons [4]. 2. Market Conditions Review Nickel Ore - Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at 51 dollars/wet ton, and Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at 37.65 dollars/wet ton. Philippine nickel ore prices in August decreased month - on - month, and the overseas nickel resource shortage has eased [5]. Pure Nickel - In July, domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, and smelter production increased slightly month - on - month. The export profit has narrowed, but the export window is still open. Russian nickel is expected to flow into China, and the inventory pressure may increase [5]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 900 yuan/nickel point to 908 yuan/nickel point. The production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia in June and July showed different trends in year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons. The inventory of nickel iron decreased but remained at a high level. Stainless - steel production is difficult to increase significantly, and the consumption of nickel iron is limited [6]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 27,230 yuan/ton to 27,280 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. The production of nickel sulfate in June decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased, and the downstream and upstream inventory days decreased [7][8]. New Energy - From July 1 - 20, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 537,000, a 23% increase year - on - year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The consumption growth rate of new - energy vehicles has slowed down. The nickel sulfate market is active, but the actual trading volume is poor, and the price increase is limited [9]. 3. Macro and Inventory - The US initial jobless claims are at a low level, and the manufacturing and service PMIs have different performances. The trade tensions have eased, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs. The current pure nickel social inventory and the inventory of the two major exchanges have decreased [10]. 4. Industry News - Indonesia urges entrepreneurs to resubmit mining work plans and budgets; the US asks Indonesia to resume nickel exports, but Indonesia will not lift the ban on raw ore exports; Vale is looking for partners for a nickel smelter project; Lifezone releases a feasibility report for a nickel mine; Russian Norilsk Nickel cuts its 2025 production forecast [12]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides charts on domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME nickel premiums and discounts, nickel futures and port inventories, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventories [14][16].