锌周报：锌价高位调整，等待宏观指引-20250728

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc rebounded strongly and then adjusted slightly. Optimistic macro - sentiment has been digested, overseas squeeze - out risk has decreased, and approaching important domestic and Fed meetings led to profit - taking by funds, resulting in a slight correction of zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, awaiting macro guidance [3][4]. - Fundamentally, the focus is on overseas squeeze - out disturbances. The domestic fundamentals remain weak, with stable zinc ore production, rising processing fees, high production loads of refined zinc smelters, and slow inventory accumulation [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The price of SHFE zinc rose from 22,295 yuan/ton on July 18th to 22,885 yuan/ton on July 25th, an increase of 590 yuan/ton. The price of LME zinc rose from 2,824 dollars/ton to 2,829 dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.89 to 8.09, an increase of 0.19 [5]. - As of July 25th, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 tons to 115,775 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 4,789 tons to 59,419 tons. As of July 24th, social inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 9.83 million tons [5][7]. 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc ZN2509 rebounded strongly and then adjusted slightly, closing at 22,885 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.65%. LME zinc broke through the 2,800 dollars/ton level, then its upward trend slowed down, closing at 2,829 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.18% [6]. - In the spot market, zinc price rebounds led to weakened downstream purchasing power, and spot premiums remained weak. There was inventory accumulation in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin due to normal arrivals and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [7]. - In the macro - aspect, the US manufacturing PMI fell into contraction, but overall business activity expanded rapidly. The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased for the sixth consecutive week, and the number of continuing jobless claims remained at a high level since 2021. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged, and the September interest - rate cut expectation dropped sharply [8][9]. 3. Industry News - In August, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,950 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/metal ton; the average imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 55.97 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.65 dollars/dry ton [12]. - Glencore will sell its Lady Loretta zinc mine and related land, and its zinc mine operation will shut down at the end of 2025, which may cause a 1/3 reduction in Mount Isa's lead - zinc concentrate production [12]. - Teck Resources' Dog mine shipping season started on July 11th, and the quarterly Red Dog zinc concentrate sales volume was 3.51 [12]. - MMG's zinc ore production in the second quarter of 2025 was 56,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. South 32's zinc concentrate production in the second quarter of 2025 was 10,600 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 39% [13]. - In June, the imported zinc concentrate was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%. The cumulative imported zinc concentrate from January to June was 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74%. The imported refined zinc in June was 36,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35% and a year - on - year increase of 3.24%. The cumulative imported refined zinc from January to June was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.53%. The exported galvanized sheet in June was 1.1312 million tons, and the cumulative exported galvanized sheet from January to June was 6.9232 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.23%. The exported die - cast zinc alloy in June was 622.15 tons, a month - on - month increase of 268.8%, and the cumulative exported die - cast zinc alloy from January to June was 2,979.8 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 34.06% [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, internal - external price ratios, spot premiums and discounts, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, refined zinc production, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise operating rates [15][18][21]