氧化铝周报：情绪有所平复，氧化铝震荡调整-20250728

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's reaction to "anti - involution" and the elimination of old - fashioned production capacity has been overheated, and there is a need for sentiment adjustment. The upward pressure on alumina futures at high levels has increased. However, the short - term supply and demand fundamentals are stable, the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a low level, and the low warehouse receipts may limit the decline of alumina prices next week when entering the delivery month [2][6] - The supply of alumina in the south has become more tight due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in a southwestern alumina plant, while the supply in the north is relatively loose. The theoretical starting capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the acceptance of high - priced alumina by electrolytic aluminum plants has improved, leading to a slight improvement in consumption. Spot holders are strongly supporting prices, and the spot price continues to rise [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data | Data Type | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/25 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3133 | 3428 | 295 | yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3202 | 3255 | 53 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 51 | - 172 | - 223 | yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 368 | 376 | 8 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | - 85.12 | - 138.62 | - 53.5 | yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 6922 | 9031 | 2109 | tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 73 | 73 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] 2. Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract rose 9.42% last week, closing at 3428 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the alumina spot market was reported at 3255 yuan/ton on Friday, up 53 yuan/ton from last week [4] - The supply shortage of bauxite continues, and the price is slightly adjusted. The price of imported ores is expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the impact of overseas situations on China's imported ore market and spot trading [4] - The starting capacity of alumina is basically stable. As of July 24, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the starting capacity was 93.2 million tons, and the starting rate was 81.18% [4] - The theoretical starting capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has increased slightly, and the demand for alumina has theoretically increased [4] - The warehouse receipt inventory of alumina futures increased by 2109 tons to 0.9 million tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][4][6] 3. Market Outlook - The news that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity in ten industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical industries has continuously triggered expectations of supply - side interference, and the bullish sentiment for alumina is high [2][6] - The short - term supply and demand fundamentals are stable, the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a low level, and the high premium of deliverable goods in the spot market makes it difficult to create warehouse receipts. The low warehouse receipts may limit the decline of alumina prices when entering the delivery month next week [2][6] 4. Industry News - A large - scale alumina plant in Shanxi plans to end the previous production cut at the end of the month and resume full - capacity operation, with the operating capacity increasing to 2.8 million tons [7] - An alumina enterprise in Shandong plans to reach full - capacity production in early August, with a resumption of production capacity of about 350,000 tons [7] - From January to June 2025, China imported a total of 103.4 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 34% [7] - In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a year - on - year decrease of 17.71%, and imported 101,300 tons of alumina, a year - on - year increase of 168.44%. The net import of alumina in June was - 69,700 tons [7] 5. Related Charts - The report includes charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina's current - month to continuous - first spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, alumina exchange inventory, and alumina cost - profit [9][10][12][14][17][20][21]