周度策略行业配置观点：热点此起彼伏，向上过程中“高低切”或将延续-20250728

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in market sentiment driven by the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Station project, which has a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, and the upcoming World Artificial Intelligence Conference [1][9] - The A-share market showed strong buying interest, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.76% during the week of July 21 to July 25, 2025 [1][8] - The report indicates a notable "high-low switch" in market behavior, where funds shifted from cyclical stocks to defensive sectors like finance and high-growth "hard technology" tracks, reflecting a transition from "policy expectations" to "industry implementation" [1][2][8] Group 2 - The cyclical sector is experiencing a revival due to two main factors: the clear policy stance against "price war" style competition and the sensitivity of sectors like steel, cement, and photovoltaics to policy benefits, which have led to valuation recovery [2][19] - The report notes a divergence within the cyclical sector, with commodity prices for coking coal, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate rising rapidly, while related cyclical stocks show structural differences in performance [2][19] - The report emphasizes that the core path to resolving the "involution" dilemma lies in enhancing economic growth and expanding overall increments, with AI as a key focus area expected to demonstrate resilience amid market fluctuations [3][20] Group 3 - The upcoming World Artificial Intelligence Conference is expected to focus on AI infrastructure and financial technology, which may accelerate capital expenditures for companies like Tencent and Alibaba Cloud due to the easing of chip supply constraints [4][20] - The report suggests that semiconductor companies should be monitored closely, as demand driven by AI computing and automotive electronics is expected to boost performance, especially with the traditional peak season starting in Q3 [20] - The report indicates that the cyclical market's sustainability faces challenges, including potential discrepancies between policy effectiveness and market expectations, as well as the need for substantial recovery in end-user demand [3][19]