贵金属周报：金价冲高回落-20250728

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, showing an inverted V-shaped trend. The upward movement was due to market concerns about the US tariff node on August 1st and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of July. However, positive trade signals from the US, Japan, Europe, and China reduced trade policy uncertainty, increasing market risk appetite and pressuring the gold price. Currently, the gold price is at a low level of oscillation since the second quarter, and the battle between bulls and bears at the $3300 mark can be observed [5][27]. - In the long term, since the second quarter, the gold price has been oscillating at a high level. Even the tense situation in the Middle East has not pushed the gold price to break through, indicating significant upward pressure. In the medium to long term, after the relaxation of US tariff policies and the easing of Sino-US relations, the market risk appetite has increased, the equity market has performed well, and the gold price has been under pressure, with the gold-silver ratio continuing to weaken. It is expected that the gold price will maintain an oscillating trend, and a straddle option combination can be considered. In the short term, attention can be paid to the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of July and the latest US tariff policy on August 1st, which may impact the short-term market [5][27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a graph of the linkage between the US dollar index and the COMEX gold futures closing price [8]. 1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | July 25 | July 18 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,338.50 | $3,355.50 | -0.51% | | COMEX Silver | $38.33 | $38.43 | -0.26% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 777.32 | 777.02 | 0.04% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,392.00 | 9,273.00 | 1.28% | | US Dollar Index | 97.67 | 98.47 | -0.82% | | US Dollar against Offshore RMB | 7.17 | 7.18 | -0.18% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.96 | 2.03 | -0.07 | | S&P 500 | 6,388.64 | 6,296.79 | 1.46% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $65.07 | $67.30 | -3.31% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 87.11 | 87.33 | -0.25% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 82.76 | 83.79 | -1.23% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 957.09 | 943.63 | 13.46 | | iShare Gold ETF | 449.60 | 446.96 | 2.64 | [9] 2. Gold Price Maintains Oscillating Trend - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, corresponding to a bottoming-out and rebound of the US dollar index, while the US Treasury yield remained weak. Positive trade policy signals from the US, Japan, and Europe reduced the short-term safe-haven demand for gold [11]. - The US stock market remained strong last week, with high market risk appetite, which pressured the gold price [13]. 3. Other Indicator Tracking - Since late May, the net long position of non-commercial traders on COMEX has been rising. As of July 22, compared with the previous week, the long position changed by 41,722 contracts, the short position by 1,799 contracts, and the net long position by 39,923 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious metal price trend than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [15]. - Since late May, the gold ETF has been climbing. In early June, the silver price rose significantly, with obvious ETF inflows, showing a combination of rising volume and price. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, capital attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain its strength [17]. - Last week, the silver price rose first and then fell. In the first half of the week, the New York silver price approached $40 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price reached 9,500 yuan per kilogram. As the gold price fell, the silver price also declined, and the gold-silver ratio rebounded slightly [20]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - and long - term trends of the gold price and suggesting attention to relevant events and investment strategies [5][27].