Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract dropped 13.25 to close at 1021.75 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.28%; the September bean meal contract fell 35 to close at 3021 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.15%; the South China bean meal spot price rose 30 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.05%; the September rapeseed meal contract dropped 47 to close at 2675 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.73%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 40 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.54% [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans oscillated downward. The weather, including precipitation and temperature, was generally suitable, and recent forecasts were favorable for crop growth and development. Although the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was revised down, it was at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The U.S. reached trade agreements with countries such as Japan and the Philippines, alleviating market concerns about trade, improving expectations for China - U.S. trade negotiations, and potentially facilitating the resumption of U.S. soybean purchases. In China, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced measures to control pig production capacity, promote low - protein technology, and reduce the substitution of bean meal. The bullish sentiment subsided, and there was a significant reduction in positions to take profits, leading to the week - long oscillation and decline of the Dalian bean meal futures [4][7]. - The cumulative precipitation forecast for the U.S. soybean - producing areas in the next two weeks is higher than the average, and the recent high - temperature weather will subside by the end of the month. The overall situation is relatively good, which may lay the foundation for high soybean yields. The U.S. has reached trade agreements with countries such as the Philippines, Japan, and Europe. The China - U.S. economic and trade negotiations in Sweden are imminent, and the market has improved expectations, which may be beneficial for the resumption of U.S. soybean purchases. The domestic bean meal inventory level continues to increase, and there is still pressure on the spot market. After the bullish funds cash in on their profits, they are waiting for guidance from the negotiation results. In the short term, the Dalian bean meal may fluctuate widely [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT November soybean futures price dropped from 1035.00 to 1021.75 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.28%. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans increased from 472.00 to 473.00 dollars per ton, an increase of 0.21%, and that of U.S. Gulf soybeans increased from 458.00 to 459.00 dollars per ton, an increase of 0.22%. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased from - 17.41 to - 45.24 yuan per ton [5]. - The DCE September bean meal contract price fell from 3056.00 to 3021.00 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.15%. The CZCE September rapeseed meal contract price dropped from 2722.00 to 2675.00 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.73%. The price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal increased from 334.00 to 346.00 yuan per ton [5]. - The East China bean meal spot price fell from 2900.00 to 2870.00 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.03%, while the South China spot price rose from 2850.00 to 2880.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.05%. The spot - futures price difference in South China increased from - 206.00 to - 141.00 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of July 20, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%, and the previous week was 70%, the same as last year's 68%. The flowering rate was 62%, up from 47% the previous week, compared with 63% last year and a five - year average of 63%. The pod - setting rate was 26%, up from 15% the previous week, compared with 27% last year and a five - year average of 26%. As of the week of July 22, about 8% of the U.S. soybean - planting areas were affected by drought, up from 7% the previous week and 4% last year [8]. - As of the week of July 17, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current year increased by 16.1 tons, compared with 27.2 tons the previous week. The cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 5081 tons, basically achieving the annual target. The net export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in that week was 24 tons, and the cumulative sales volume in this season was 261 tons, compared with 290 tons last year [9]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was 2.58 dollars per bushel, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week. The 48% protein bean meal spot price in Illinois was 257.28 dollars per short ton, equivalent to 5.98 dollars per bushel. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 56.15 cents per pound, equivalent to 6.63 dollars per bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.28 dollars per bushel, compared with 10.23 dollars per bushel last week [9]. - Anec predicted that Brazil's soybean exports in July would be 1211 tons, and the bean meal exports would be 240 tons [9]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 642.24 tons, a decrease of 15.25 tons from the previous week but an increase of 31.04 tons compared with last year. The bean meal inventory was 99.84 tons, an increase of 11.22 tons from the previous week but a decrease of 26.22 tons compared with last year. The unexecuted contracts were 496.23 tons, a decrease of 52.57 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 8.05 tons compared with last year. The soybean inventory in national ports was 797.9 tons, a decrease of 25.2 tons from the previous week but an increase of 54.33 tons compared with last year [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average daily trading volume of national bean meal was 13.852 tons, including 8.262 tons of spot trading and 5.59 tons of forward trading. The previous week's average daily trading volume was 13.254 tons. The average daily delivery volume of bean meal was 18.842 tons, compared with 18.524 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 223.89 tons, compared with 230.55 tons the previous week. The inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises were 8.19 days, compared with 8.26 days the previous week [10]. Industry News - According to the FAO's "Agricultural Outlook 2025 - 34", by 2034, the soybean production in countries such as India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada is expected to increase. Brazil, the largest soybean - producing country, is expected to see its soybean production grow at an annual rate of 0.8%, slightly higher than the 0.5% of the second - largest producer, the U.S. The soybean production in other South American regions is expected to grow strongly. By 2034, the soybean production in Argentina and Paraguay will reach 5600 tons and 1300 tons respectively. The global soybean production is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1%, compared with 2.2% in the past decade. About 80% of the production growth will be contributed by the increase in yield [12]. - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat data showed that in the first three weeks of July, Brazil exported 7,436,819.48 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 531,201.39 tons, a 9% increase compared with the average daily export volume of 489,127.13 tons in July last year. The total export volume in July last year was 11,249,924.00 tons [12]. - The IMEA announced that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from July 14 to July 18 was 441.52 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 443.58 Brazilian reals per ton the previous week. The bean meal price in that state was 1499.39 Brazilian reals per ton, and the soybean oil price was 6037.16 Brazilian reals per ton [13]. - As of July 20, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/2026 season were 9 tons, compared with 20 tons last year. The EU's soybean imports in the 2025/2026 season were 52 tons, compared with 77 tons last year. The EU's bean meal imports in the 2025/2026 season were 100 tons, compared with 111 tons last year [13]. - The AAFC adjusted key data in its July supply - demand report. It adopted the latest rapeseed production data for the 2024/2025 season released by Statistics Canada, significantly increasing the production forecast to about 1919 tons, compared with the previous forecast of 1785 tons. The export expectation of old - crop rapeseed was also raised to 950 tons. Looking forward to the 2025/2026 season, the AAFC lowered the rapeseed production forecast by 20 tons to 1780 tons, based on a yield of 2.08 tons per hectare, lower than the 2.17 tons per hectare last year [13]. - From August 2024 to May 2025, Russia's rapeseed meal exports increased by 32% year - on - year to about 56.7 tons, mainly due to strong demand from China and Turkey. Due to the EU's import tariffs on Russian rapeseed meal, Russian exporters turned to the Asian market. China's imports of Russian rapeseed meal increased from 10,000 - 20,000 tons per month to 30,000 - 50,000 tons per month. China's total imports of Russian rapeseed meal from August 2024 to May 2025 were 24 tons, compared with 11.2 tons in the same period last year. Turkey's imports also doubled to 10.1 tons, with 93% coming from Russia [14]. - Argentina's soybean crushing volume in June was 4055149 tons, the soybean oil production was 788210 tons, and the bean meal production was 3021082 tons. As of July 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 3515877 tons, the soybean oil inventory was 283900 tons, and the bean meal inventory was 814862 tons [14]. - A commodity research report predicted that Australia's rapeseed production in the 2025/2026 season would be 570 tons, a 5% decrease from the previous expectation. The production forecast was lowered mainly because the yield forecasts in New South Wales and Victoria were reduced due to recent droughts that were unfavorable for crop growth [15]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the trend of the bean meal main contract, the net position of managed funds in the CBOT, the spot price of bean meal in different regions, the spot - futures price difference of bean meal, the precipitation and temperature in U.S. soybean - producing areas, the flowering rate and good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans to the world, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative sales volume of new - season U.S. soybeans, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans to China, the weekly export volume of U.S. soybeans, the weekly average daily trading volume and delivery volume of bean meal, the U.S. oil mill crushing profit, the soybean inventory in ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume and startup rate of oil mills, the bean meal inventory in oil mills, and the inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises [16][21][24].
豆粕周报：关注中美谈判进程，连粕震荡收跌-20250728
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-28 02:04