工业硅：情绪回落，关注大幅下跌风险，多晶硅：情绪回落

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets has declined, and there is a risk of significant price drops in industrial silicon [1]. - The trend strength for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: - Industrial silicon (Si2509) had a closing price of 9,725 yuan/ton, with a significant decrease in trading volume compared to previous periods. Its open interest also decreased [1]. - Polysilicon (PS2509) had a closing price of 51,025 yuan/ton, and both trading volume and open interest declined [1]. - Basis: - The spot premium/discount for industrial silicon varied depending on the benchmark, with some showing changes compared to previous periods [1]. - The spot premium/discount for polysilicon (N - type re - feeding) was - 4,525 yuan/ton, with significant changes over different time intervals [1]. - Price: - The price of industrial silicon products such as East China oxygen - passed Si5530 and Yunnan Si4210 showed some increases compared to previous periods [1]. - The price of polysilicon (N - type re - feeding) was 46,500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 500 yuan/ton compared to T - 1 [1]. - Profit: - Silicon plant profits for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553 were negative, but showed some improvement compared to previous periods [1]. - Polysilicon enterprise profits were - 17.9 yuan/kg, with a slight improvement compared to T - 1 [1]. - Inventory: - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 53.5 million tons, with a decrease compared to previous periods [1]. - Polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 24.3 million tons, also showing a decrease [1]. - Raw Material Cost: - The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes showed different trends, with some remaining stable and others changing slightly [1]. Macro and Industry News - In the first half of this year, Zhejiang purchased 12.6 million green certificates through the Beijing Power Trading Green Certificate Platform, equivalent to 12.6 billion kWh of electricity, ranking first in the State Grid's operating area [3].