合成橡胶：短期回调，中期震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is -1, indicating a short - term view of a high - level pullback and a medium - term view of an oscillating pattern [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the futures price of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to pull back from the high level and enter an oscillating pattern in the medium term. Short - term, with a large amount of speculative funds leaving the market on Friday night, the commodity index has fallen from its high, and synthetic rubber will follow suit. Also, with the strengthening of the basis, the supply pressure on the spot market is expected to increase. Medium - term, cis - butadiene rubber is expected to oscillate due to the ongoing anti - involution policy, the stable support of the rubber sector, and the marginal improvement of the synthetic rubber industry chain fundamentals [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (09 contract), the daily closing price was 12,415 yuan/ton (up 130 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 160,791 lots (up 12,149 lots), the open interest was 49,311 lots (up 483 lots), and the trading volume was 9.90584 billion yuan (up 943.32 million yuan) [1]. - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene - futures main contract was - 265 yuan (down 80 yuan), the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was - 30 yuan (down 5 yuan). The prices of North China, East China, and South China private cis - butadiene increased by 50 yuan respectively. The Shandong cis - butadiene market price (delivery product) increased by 50 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) and (model 1712) increased by 250 yuan and 200 yuan respectively. The Jiangsu and Shandong mainstream prices of butadiene increased by 100 yuan and 75 yuan respectively [1]. - Fundamentals: The cis - butadiene operating rate was 71.3912% (unchanged), the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 12,491 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the cis - butadiene profit was - 291 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. 3.2 Industry News - Butadiene Inventory: As of July 23, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period. Limited import shipments and weather - affected delays led to the decrease [2]. - Cis - butadiene Rubber Inventory: As of July 23, 2025 (week 30), the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.22% from the previous week. Due to macro news and rising raw material costs, the spot and futures markets were expected to be strong, the supply price increased significantly, and the inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly while that of sample trading enterprises increased [2][3].