软商品日报：多空交织美棉震荡运行，棉花高位震荡-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which is prone to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics. Textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary According to the Data Directory 3.1 Outer Market Quotes - US sugar (in dollars): The price decreased from 16.57 on July 24, 2025, to 16.28 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.75% [3]. - US cotton (in dollars): The price decreased from 68.74 on July 24, 2025, to 68.23 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.74% [3]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): The price remained at 6050.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): The price increased from 5910.0 on July 24, 2025, to 5920.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.17% [3]. - Cotton Index 328: The price decreased from 3281 on July 24, 2025, to 3280 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.09% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): The price increased from 15400.0 on July 24, 2025, to 15450.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.32% [3]. 3.3 Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: The spread increased from 53.0 on July 24, 2025, to 63.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 18.87% [3]. - SR05 - 09: The spread increased from - 251.0 on July 24, 2025, to - 233.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 7.17% [3]. - SR09 - 01: The spread decreased from 198.0 on July 24, 2025, to 170.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 14.14% [3]. - CF01 - 05: The spread remained at 75.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - CF05 - 09: The spread increased from - 170.0 on July 24, 2025, to - 130.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 23.53% [3]. - CF09 - 01: The spread decreased from 95.0 on July 24, 2025, to 55.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 42.11% [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: The basis decreased from 242.0 on July 24, 2025, to 214.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 11.57% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: The basis decreased from 295.0 on July 24, 2025, to 277.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 6.10% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: The basis remained at 44.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: The basis decreased from 1498.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1434.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 4.27% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: The basis decreased from 1573.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1509.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 4.07% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: The basis decreased from 1403.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1379.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.71% [3]. 3.4 Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: The price increased from 78.7 on July 24, 2025, to 79.2 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.64% [3]. 3.5 Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: The profit remained at 1582.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.6 Options - SR509C5900: Implied volatility is 0.1037, and the futures underlying is SR509 with a historical volatility of 6.95 [3]. - SR509P5900: Implied volatility is 0.1111 [3]. - CF509C14200: Implied volatility is 0.1531, and the futures underlying is CF509 with a historical volatility of 8.6 [3]. - CF509P14200: Implied volatility is 0.1511 [3]. 3.7 Warehouse Receipts (in pieces) - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 20940.0 on July 24, 2025, to 20642.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.42% [3]. - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 9337.0 on July 24, 2025, to 9265.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.77% [3]. 4. Company Information - The report is from Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer of relevant associations [8].