Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream demand for red dates remains in the seasonal consumption off - season, with a slow terminal sales pace, low purchasing willingness of traders, and a light market trading atmosphere. The supply of old red dates is sufficient, and the high temperature in the producing areas has not significantly affected the growth, showing no significant downward trend in production. The current second - crop fruit - setting situation is better than expected, and the third - crop is still in the critical fruit - setting period. It is expected that the red date price will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [8][40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1走势回顾 (Trend Review) - Futures Price: Last week, the red date futures market showed a range - bound pattern. As of last Friday's close, the CJ601 contract was reported at 10,445 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The trading volume was 775,747 lots, and the open interest was 125,910 lots. The number of red date futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,813, a decrease of 80 from the previous trading day. The warehouse receipts decreased by 158 last week, a decline of 1.76% [5][13] - Spot Price: In the Xinjiang producing area, the temperature was 20℃ - 33℃ last week with sporadic precipitation. The first - crop flower fruit - setting was average, but the temperature drop and rainfall in early July significantly increased the fruit - setting rate of the second and third - crop flowers. The prices of common - grade grey dates in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar were 4.8, 5.2, and 6 yuan/kg respectively. In the sales areas, the arrival volume in Hebei Cuierzhuang exceeded 40 trucks, with the average price of first - grade grey dates at 8.7 yuan/kg, and the downstream showed strong purchasing enthusiasm. The price in the Henan market remained stable, with the average price of first - grade grey dates at 8.7 yuan/kg, and the downstream purchased as needed. In Guangdong Ruyifang, the average daily arrival was 3 trucks, with the average price of first - grade grey dates at 9.80 yuan/kg, and the average daily trading volume was about 1 truck [7][17][20] 3.2库存情况 (Inventory Situation) - According to Mysteel Agricultural Products data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 10,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 73.07%, indicating a decline in inventory. The arrival volume in the Hebei market rebounded. Although it is in the traditional consumption off - season, the downstream has phased replenishment needs, driving up the price of high - quality goods and significantly increasing the circulation rate. The price in the Guangdong market remained stable, and the goods circulation rhythm was relatively slow [24] 3.3利润分析 (Profit Analysis) - According to Mysteel Agricultural Products data, the average purchase price of grey dates in the Xinjiang main producing area last week was 5.33 yuan/kg. The reference price of first - grade finished products in the Hebei sales area market was 8.60 - 8.90 yuan/kg, and the freight from Aksu to Cangzhou was 380 - 400 yuan/ton. The gross profit was equivalent to 1.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous week [28] 3.4产量分析 (Yield Analysis) - According to Mysteel Agricultural Products data, the estimated new - season yield is 56 - 620,000 tons, a decrease of 5 - 10% compared to the 2022 season and a decrease of 20 - 25% compared to the 2024 season, showing no significant downward trend in production [33] 3.5产区天气情况 (Weather Conditions in the Producing Areas) - In 2025, the accumulated temperature in the Xinjiang red date main producing area was higher than the same period in previous years. Taking Aksu as an example, although there was a low temperature of - 18℃ in January, the dormant period of jujube trees was not affected by freezing damage, and the budding period in mid - April was earlier than usual. After the girdling operation of red dates, the high - temperature weather in the producing area gradually subsided, and there was no large - scale physiological fruit drop. In terms of precipitation, the precipitation in Aksu was 6mm, a decrease of 49.19mm compared to the same period last year, and the precipitation in Kashgar was 17mm, at a low level in recent years. The quality of jujube fruits is likely to be higher than that of the previous season. After mid - August, jujube fruits will gradually start to gain sugar. Continuous attention should be paid to the weather changes in the producing area [39] 3.6后市展望 (Market Outlook) - The downstream demand for red dates remains in the seasonal consumption off - season, with a slow terminal sales pace, low purchasing willingness of traders, and a light market trading atmosphere. The supply of old red dates is sufficient, and the high temperature in the producing areas has not significantly affected the growth, showing no significant downward trend in production. The current second - crop fruit - setting situation is better than expected, and the third - crop is still in the critical fruit - setting period. It is expected that the red date price will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [8][40] 3.7操作策略 (Operation Strategy) - Mainly conduct range trading and continuously monitor the impact of recent high temperatures on the third - crop fruit - setting [9][41]
红枣周报：弱消费、高库存承压，新季二三茬坐果成关键-20250728
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-07-28 02:13