甲醇：短期回调，中期震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][4] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term high - level correction and medium - term entry into a volatile pattern. In the short term, with a large amount of speculative funds leaving the market on Friday night, the commodity index dropped from a high, and methanol futures followed suit. Also, as the basis strengthens, it is expected to release the liquidity of spot and futures sources in the spot market, bringing supply - side selling pressure. In the medium term, methanol is expected to fluctuate. The "anti - involution" policy and supply - side optimization expectations support the overall valuation of commodities, and the domestic methanol maintenance volume has increased while the July import volume is low, leading to a short - term contraction in domestic supply and unexpected inventory reduction at ports [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 2,519 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,500 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The trading volume was 991,786 lots, a decrease of 261,148 lots; the open interest was 663,505 lots, an increase of 31,318 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,134 tons, unchanged. The trading turnover was 2.479362 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.609219 billion yuan. The basis was - 10 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan; the spread between MA09 and MA01 was - 68 yuan, an increase of 2 yuan [2] - Spot Market: The Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,475 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,040 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the Shandong price was 2,320 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot News - No specific information provided [3] 3.3 Futures Research - Inventory Situation: This week, the methanol port inventory in the port area had an unexpected reduction, with the unloading speed far lower than expected. The visible unloading of foreign vessels was only 9.20 tons, and the slow ship - entering speed in Zhejiang dragged down the unloading. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas, the pick - up and consumption were stable, and the inventory in East China decreased significantly. The inventory in the South China port continued to accumulate. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic vessels arrived, but the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory increased. In Fujian, the inventory increased slightly [4] - Price Trend: Short - term correction and medium - term volatility. In the short term, due to the departure of speculative funds and the strengthening of the basis, methanol futures corrected. In the medium term, it will fluctuate because of the "anti - involution" policy and the short - term contraction in supply [4] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]