中泰期货晨会纪要-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the trends of various futures are judged, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long. Based on quantitative indicators, the trends are divided into short - biased, oscillating, and long - biased [4]. - For stock index futures, pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. For treasury bond futures, consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration in the medium term. For black commodities, prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. For non - ferrous metals and new materials, prices are expected to show different trends such as high - level oscillation and weakening. For agricultural products, prices are affected by supply and demand and other factors, showing different trends. For energy and chemical products, most are expected to be in a weak or oscillating state [6][7][8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The government has introduced a series of policies, such as the establishment of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, the deployment of key tasks for the reform and development of the capital market by the CSRC, and the adjustment of the maximum value of the预定 interest rate of new insurance products by insurance companies. Economic data shows that the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size have rebounded, and the US durable goods orders have declined significantly [8]. Macro Finance - Stock Index Futures: The strategy is to pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. The A - share market has shown a pattern of sector rotation. The CSRC has deployed key tasks, and insurance companies are adjusting the预定 interest rate. The profits of industrial enterprises have rebounded, and attention should be paid to the movement of stop - profit funds [6][7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The strategy is to consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration in the medium term. The bond market has shown short - term fluctuations, and inflation and the capital situation are the focus. Attention should be paid to the trends of the stock index and commodities [8][9]. Black Commodities - Screw and Ore: Affected by policies, the expectation of increasing inflation through the supply side is rising. The off - season is not weak, and the peak season is not strong. The demand may weaken marginally, and the supply is expected to remain strong. Steel mill profits vary, and iron ore production is expected to remain high. Prices may enter a short - term oscillating adjustment phase [11]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. The supply may be reduced due to production inspections, and the demand is stable. However, there is a possibility of a decline in iron water production, and imported coal may put pressure on prices. The adjustment of trading limits has affected prices [13]. - Ferroalloys: The market may open lower and fluctuate greatly on the 28th. The fundamentals remain unchanged, and the profit margins have expanded. It is recommended to hold short positions [14]. - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash is recommended to avoid risks and wait and see; glass long - position holders at low levels can consider taking profits on rallies. The supply of soda ash has decreased due to maintenance, and the inventory has declined. The price of glass has risen, but the demand is mainly speculative [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term range trading is recommended. The prices of both have been affected by regulatory measures and market sentiment [18]. - Zinc: Social inventories are increasing, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. The processing fee is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and prices will oscillate and weaken [19]. - Lithium Carbonate: It will oscillate strongly before the supply - side disruption expectation is falsified. If the production reduction does not occur for a long time, prices may fall [20]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate. Polysilicon has a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and the market may fluctuate greatly [21]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Prices are oscillating and rebounding under pressure. It is recommended to try short - selling on rallies in the long - term. The market is affected by macro and supply - demand factors, and the consumption outlook is still worrying [26][27]. - Sugar: Domestic sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar and the decline in import costs. The international sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus [29][30]. - Eggs: The price is in a seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may be large. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the impact of relevant policies [32]. - Apples: It is recommended to conduct light - position positive arbitrage. The market is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [33]. - Corn: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range, and short - term trading is recommended. The market is affected by policies, substitute products, and supply and demand [34][35]. - Jujubes: It is recommended to lightly short. The market is in the physiological fruit - dropping period, and attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation and weather [36]. - Pigs: Short - term short - selling is recommended for near - month contracts, and attention should be paid to risk control. Arbitrage strategies can be considered [36]. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: It is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and trade negotiations [39]. - Fuel Oil: Prices are weaker than crude oil, and the fundamentals are becoming looser. The market is affected by factors such as the oil price oscillation, the Middle East power generation demand, and the shipping market [41]. - Plastics: The market sentiment may lead to a slight strength in polyolefins in the short term, but the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to beware of callback risks [41][42]. - Rubber: It is oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs. Attention should be paid to factors such as raw material supply and market sentiment [43]. - Methanol: It is recommended to beware of callback risks and consider short - selling options. The fundamentals are weak, and the market is affected by sentiment [44]. - Caustic Soda: The SH2509 contract is expected to be under pressure in the context of the rising price of liquid chlorine and the weakening of commodity futures [44]. - Asphalt: The fundamentals are stable, and prices follow crude oil. The market is affected by factors such as the oil price oscillation and the seasonal demand [47]. - Polyester Industry Chain: It is not recommended to go long, and short - selling can be considered later. The supply may decrease, but the demand is weak [48]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the long - term. Prices are likely to fall [49]. - Paper Pulp: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate and rise, but the amplitude is limited. Attention should be paid to port de - stocking and spot trading [50]. - Logs: The spot price has rebounded, and the basis repair logic still exists. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [51]. - Urea: Futures are expected to open significantly lower and then oscillate. It is advisable to consider going long after a significant decline [52].