棕榈油：短期上涨到位，警惕情绪回落，豆油：区间震荡，关注中美贸易进展

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil has reached its short - term upward limit, and investors should be wary of a decline in sentiment [1]. - Soybean oil will trade in a range, and investors should pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - Palm oil主力: closing price (day session) was 8,936 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.85%, closing price (night session) was 8,922 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.16%. Trading volume was 673,443 lots, an increase of 45,660 lots, and open interest was 456,448 lots, a decrease of 59,879 lots [2]. - Soybean oil主力: closing price (day session) was 8,144 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.27%, closing price (night session) was 8,112 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.39%. Trading volume was 382,038 lots, a decrease of 18,122 lots, and open interest was 504,638 lots, a decrease of 17,389 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil主力: closing price (day session) was 9,457 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.37%, closing price (night session) was 9,384 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.77%. Trading volume was 309,343 lots, an increase of 44,920 lots, and open interest was 210,783 lots, a decrease of 1,202 lots [2]. - Spot Data: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: spot price was 9,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: spot price was 8,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: spot price was 9,470 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis and Spread Data: - Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 64 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 186 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was 13 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 521 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 792 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 896,484 tons, a 15.22% decrease compared to the same period last month [3]. - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decrease compared to the same period last month [5]. - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IPA) and the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (IPOA) signed a three - year agreement to deepen economic ties and ensure food security [5]. - The US Soybean Export Association (USSEC) believes it is reasonable for India to import soybeans from the US. In 2023/24, India imported 970,000 tons of non - GM soybeans from African countries, but in 2024/25, imports decreased by 84% to 154,000 tons [5]. - In Q2 2025, Brazil's biodiesel production increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 2.08 million tons, and from January to June, production reached 3.97 million tons (+7.3%). From April to June, soybean oil consumption as a raw material increased by 10% to 1.6 million tons, and its proportion in biodiesel production reached a record 79% in May and June. During this period, Brazil's soybean oil exports remained at 420,000 tons [6]. - After Argentina raised export taxes, soybean sales slowed down last week. As of July 16, farmers had pre - sold 26.64 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 400,000 tons more than the previous week; 450,000 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, 30,000 tons more than the previous week; and 40.71 million tons of 2023/24 soybeans, 10,000 tons more than the previous week [7]. - Expana raised its forecast for EU rapeseed production this year to 19.6 million tons, up from 19.2 million tons last month and a 16.7% increase from last year. The soybean production forecast remained unchanged at 3 million tons, a 3.2% decrease from last year [8]. - As of the week ending July 20, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 151.12% to 202,400 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to July 20, 2025, exports were 9.437 million tons, a 40.93% increase from the same period last year. As of July 20, the commercial inventory was 1.1823 million tons [8]. - In the 2024/25 season, global rapeseed production decreased by 4.4 million tons, with EU production decreasing by 3 million tons and Ukraine's by 1 million tons to 3.7 million tons. Ukraine's rapeseed exports were 3.1 million tons, a 16% decrease year - on - year. In the 2025/26 season, due to adverse weather, UkrAgro Consult estimated Ukraine's rapeseed production to be between 2.7 - 2.8 million tons [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10].