本周热点前瞻2025-07-28

Key Points Summary 1. This Week's Key Focus - From July 27th to 30th, Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden [2][3] - On July 30th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the initial value of the US Q2 GDP [2][10] - On July 31st at 02:00, the Fed will announce its interest - rate decision, expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged [2][13] - On July 31st at 09:30, China will release July's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI [2][14] - On July 31st at 20:30, the US will release the June PCE price index [2][18] - On August 1st at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July non - farm payrolls report [2][23] 2. This Week's Hotspot Preview July 28th - The third round of China - US economic and trade talks is held. The outcome may impact relevant futures prices, with August 12th being the deadline for the suspension of additional tariffs [3] July 29th - The US Conference Board will release the July consumer confidence index at 22:00. An index higher than the previous value (expected 95.9, previous 93) will help non - ferrous metal futures rise but suppress gold and silver futures [4] July 30th - Germany will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 16:00. An expected quarter - on - quarter rate of - 0.1% (previous 0.4%) may slightly suppress non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but help gold and silver futures [6] - The Eurozone will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 17:00. Expected quarter - on - quarter rate of 0% (previous 0.6%) and year - on - year rate of 1.2% (previous 1.5%) may have a similar impact as Germany's data [7] - The Eurozone will release July's economic and industrial景气指数 at 17:00, with expected values of 94.8 (previous 94) and - 11 (previous - 12) respectively [8] - The US ADP will release the change in July ADP employment at 20:15. An expected increase of 75,000 (previous - 33,000) will help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [9] - The US will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 20:30. An expected annualized quarter - on - quarter rate of 2.5% (previous - 0.5%) will have a similar impact as the ADP employment data [10] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest - rate decision and monetary policy report at 21:45, expected to keep the overnight lending rate at 2.75% [11] - The US EIA will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 25th at 22:30. A continued decline (previous 3.169 million barrels) will help crude oil and related commodity futures [12] July 31st - The Fed will announce its interest - rate decision at 02:00, and Fed Chair Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30. Focus on the press - conference content and its impact on the futures market [13] - China will release July's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI at 09:30, with expected values of 49.7 (same as previous) and 50.5 (same as previous) respectively [14] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest - rate decision and outlook report at 11:00, and Governor Ueda will hold a press conference at 14:30, expected to keep the benchmark rate at 0.5% [15] - The Eurozone will release the June unemployment rate at 17:00, expected to be 6.3% (same as previous) [16] - The US will release June's personal spending and income at 20:30. Expected monthly rates of 0.4% (previous - 0.1%) for personal consumption expenditure and 0.2% (previous - 0.4%) for personal income may suppress gold and silver futures but help industrial futures other than gold and silver [17] - The US will release the June PCE price index at 20:30, with expected annual rates of 2.5% (previous 2.3%) for PCE and 2.7% (same as previous) for core PCE [18] - The US will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26th at 20:30. An expected number of 215,000 (previous 217,000) may suppress gold and silver futures but help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures [19] August 1st - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for July will be released at 9:45. An expected value of 50.5 (previous 50.4) slightly lower than the previous value may slightly suppress industrial product futures and stock index futures but help treasury bond futures [20] - The Eurozone will release the July CPI initial value at 17:00. Expected annual rates of 1.9% (previous 2.0%) for the harmonized CPI and 2.3% (previous 2.4%) for the core harmonized CPI [22] - The US will release the July non - farm payrolls report at 20:30. Expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm jobs of 110,000 (previous 147,000), an unemployment rate of 4.2% (previous 4.1%), and an average hourly wage annual rate of 3.8% (previous 3.7%). Fewer new jobs than the previous value will help gold and silver futures but suppress other commodity futures [23] - The US ISM will release the July manufacturing PMI at 22:00. An expected value of 49.5 (previous 49) slightly higher than the previous value will slightly help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [24]