Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is expected to be weakly operating [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures rose significantly, forming a resonance with raw materials such as coal and soda ash. Driven by strong macro - sentiment and policy documents, the market was overbought. The supply decreased slightly with a cold - repair of one production line and a decline in daily melting volume. Both main production and sales areas saw inventory drops. The market demand improved, but the downstream terminal's willingness to stockpile remained low. The soda ash market also had more supply than actual demand, with limited upside potential. As the end - of - month meeting expectations are to be realized, the 08 - contract positions are higher than usual, and spot goods in the hands of spot - futures traders need to be sold. It is expected that the market will correct from its high level, and participation is not recommended without physical goods [2] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Main Logic: The glass futures rose last week, with supply decreasing slightly and inventory dropping in major areas. Market demand improved, but downstream terminal stocking willingness was low. Soda ash supply exceeded demand. End - of - month meeting expectations are to be realized, and it's expected that the market will correct from its high [2] - Operating Strategy: Weakly operating [2][3] 02 and 03 Market Review - Spot Price: As of July 25, the 5mm float glass market price was 1,250 yuan/ton in North China (+90), 1,190 yuan/ton in Central China (+90), and 1,280 yuan/ton in East China (+40). The futures price of the glass 09 contract closed at 1,362 yuan/ton last Friday, up 281 yuan from the previous week [9][10] - Soda Ash - Glass Spread: As of July 25, the soda ash futures price was 1,440 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,362 yuan/ton, with a spread of 78 yuan/ton (-57) [11] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 09 contract was - 162 yuan/ton (-171), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 64 yuan/ton (+20) [14] 04 Profit - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,594 yuan/ton (+22), and the gross profit was - 314 yuan/ton (+18) [15] - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,154 yuan/ton (+30), and the gross profit was 96 yuan/ton (+60) [19] - Petroleum Coke Process: The cost was 1,108 yuan/ton (+2), and the gross profit was 82 yuan/ton (+68) [19] 05 Supply - Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 157,755 tons/day (-1,100), with 223 production lines in operation. The first - line of Gansu Kaisheng Daming with a daily melting volume of 600T/D was cold - repaired last week [21] 06 Inventory - As of July 25, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,189.6 million weight boxes (-304.3). North China's inventory was 815.3 million weight boxes (-50.4); Central China's was 663 million weight boxes (-75.7); East China's was 1,370.3 million weight boxes (-36.2); South China's was 1,025.6 million weight boxes (-19.4); Southwest's was 1,171.4 million weight boxes (-47.3); and Shahe's factory inventory was 115 million weight boxes (-61) [27][34] 07 Deep - processing - On July 24, the comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 126% (+35%). On July 15, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.8% (-0.5%). In mid - July, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (-0.2) [36] 08 and 09 Demand - Automotive: In June, China's automobile production was 2.794 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 145,000 and a year - on - year increase of 287,000. Sales were 2.904 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 218,000 and a year - on - year increase of 352,000. New energy passenger vehicle retail sales in June were 1.111 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 53.3% [48] - Real Estate: In June, China's real estate completion area was 41.8147 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2%; new construction area was 71.8071 million square meters (-9%); construction area was 83.0189 million square meters (+5%); and commercial housing sales area was 105.354 million square meters (-7%). From July 14 to July 20, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.37 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. In June, real estate development investment was 1.042416 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% [57] 10, 11, 12, 13 Cost - side - Soda Ash - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were 1,350 yuan/ton in North China (+50), 1,350 yuan/ton in East China (+75), 1,325 yuan/ton in Central China (+75), and 1,500 yuan/ton in South China (+75) [59] - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,440 yuan/ton (+224) [64] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 09 contract was - 115 yuan/ton (-149) [63] - Profit: As of last Friday, the ammonia - alkali method cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,330 yuan/ton (+9), with a gross profit of - 35 yuan/ton (+48); the co - production method cost was 1,702 yuan/ton (+86), with a gross profit of 18 yuan/ton (+81) [65][67] - Inventory: As of July 25, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.8846 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 41,000), including 1.1224 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 200) and 742,200 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 40,800). The exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts last weekend were 955 (a month - on - month increase of 665). The apparent demand of light soda ash was 355,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,900. The apparent demand of heavy soda ash last week was 409,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 105.66%, a week - on - week increase of 11.42%. In May, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 25.8 days [77][88][94]
玻璃：预期面临兑现，预计偏弱运行
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-07-28 02:26