新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-28）-20250728

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Rebar and coil: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Glass: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Soda ash: Fluctuation [2] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [3] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Fluctuation [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Fluctuation [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Rebound [3] - Gold: Fluctuation [3] - Silver: High-level fluctuation [3] - Pulp: Fluctuating upward [6] - Logs: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Palm oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Rapeseed oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean meal: Fluctuating downward [6] - Rapeseed meal: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean No. 2: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean No. 1: Fluctuating downward [6] - Live pigs: Fluctuating downward [8] - Rubber: Fluctuation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Weak consolidation [9] Core Views - The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth", and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction after the short-term sentiment is released [2][3][6][8] - The end-of-month Politburo meeting is approaching, and the macro is neutral to strong. Pay attention to the implementation of policies and the performance of off-season demand [2] - The steel industry's expectation of stable growth in the short term has improved market sentiment. Pay attention to whether there will be more policies issued at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] - The real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle, and the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks are crucial [3] - The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors, and the market's risk aversion sentiment is dominated by the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts [3] - The short-term risk aversion demand has weakened, and the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September reaches about 60%. Pay attention to the FOMC meeting on July 25th [3] - The fundamentals of pulp show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [6] - The supply pressure of logs is not large, and the demand is in the off-season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate mainly [6] - The inventory of the three major oils continues to rise, and it is expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The supply of soybeans is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The supply of live pigs continues to increase, and high temperatures restrict consumption. It is expected that the weekly average price will decline [8] - The natural rubber industry is in a supply-demand adjustment stage, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] - The supply and demand of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are different, and it is recommended to wait and see or expect weak consolidation [9] Grouped Summaries Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth". The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, and the supply is still loose. The iron ore fundamentals are okay in the short term, but the supply-demand surplus pattern remains unchanged in the long term. Pay attention to policy implementation and off-season demand [2] - Coking coal and coke: The "anti-involution" policy is fermenting, the market sentiment is optimistic, and the third round of price increases has been fully implemented. The fundamentals are strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction. Pay attention to the trends of molten iron and the supply side [2] - Rebar and coil: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth". The demand for building materials has declined in the off-season, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is difficult to have an inverse seasonal performance, and it is expected to be high in the front and low in the back. Pay attention to policy issuance [2] - Glass: The inventory of glass factories continues to decline, and the supply remains low. The market sentiment has improved, and the production and sales have improved. However, the demand is difficult to rebound significantly in the long term. Pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2] - Soda ash: The supply is low, and the market sentiment is good. The downstream inventory is low and there is room for replenishment, but the rigid demand has not recovered. Pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.53%, the Shanghai 50 index fell by 0.60%, the CSI 500 index rose by 0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 0.08%. The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the market interest rate has consolidated. The Treasury bond trend has rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the risk aversion demand is still there. The short-term risk aversion demand has weakened, and the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September reaches about 60%. It is expected that gold will fluctuate mainly [3] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price is stable, the cost price has decreased, and the demand is in the off-season. The fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [6] - Logs: The port inventory has increased, the cost support has strengthened, the supply pressure is not large, and the demand is in the off-season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate mainly [6] Oils and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The inventory of the three major oils continues to rise, the supply is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward. Pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The supply of soybeans is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward. Pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas, the arrival of soybeans, and Sino-US trade negotiations [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight continues to decline, the supply continues to increase, high temperatures restrict consumption, and it is expected that the weekly average price will decline [8] - Rubber: The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to be tight, the raw material prices are firm, the industry is in a supply-demand adjustment stage, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] Polyester - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: The supply and demand are different, and it is recommended to wait and see or expect weak consolidation [9]