南华期货聚酯产业周报（20250727）：让子弹飞一会儿-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For MEG, under the recent "anti - involution" logic, the polyester sector is generally strong, but the substantial impact mainly lies in the rebound of coal prices on the cost side. The supply - side impact is expected to be limited. The inventory accumulation in the third quarter has significantly decreased, and the near - end supply - demand has marginally improved. It is recommended to wait and see before the "anti - involution" policy is implemented. For bottle chips, the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side, and the cash - flow processing fee has been slightly compressed recently, with the disk processing fee mainly for range operation [2]. - For PX - TA, the PX - PTA is generally strong driven by commodity sentiment and marginal improvement in polyester demand. The current fundamental driving force of the PX - TA industry chain is limited, and the impact of the "anti - involution" policy is difficult to assess. It is advisable to wait for further policy announcements. The near - end supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the industrial chain profit still tends to be concentrated upstream. In the short term, there may be PTA production - cut and price - support actions, and it is advisable to expand the processing fee at low prices [3][5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs MEG - Inventory: The inventory at East China ports decreased to 53.3 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to the previous period. Next Monday, the port's visible inventory is expected to increase by about 30,000 tons [1]. - Device: Shenhua Yulin recently reduced its load for maintenance; Jianyuan, Yueneng, and Yangmei Shouyang recently restarted and increased their loads; Zhonghuaxue is in the process of heating up and restarting but has not produced output yet. Overseas, four sets of 2.15 million - ton production capacity devices in Saudi Arabia that were temporarily shut down have restarted, and a 700,000 - ton device of US Lotte has shut down recently [1]. - Supply and Demand: The total supply load increased to 68.35% (+2.15%), and the coal - based load increased to 74.36% (+2.15%). The demand side saw a slight increase in the load of filament and staple fiber, and the polyester load rebounded to 88.7% (+0.4%) [2]. - Profit: The profits of each route have been significantly repaired, and the EO - 1.3EG ratio has weakened significantly [2]. PX - TA - PX: Tianjin Petrochemical of PX shut down for maintenance as planned, and the load decreased to 79.9% (-1.2%). There is an expectation of increased supply in August. The PX link's efficiency has been further repaired [3][4]. - PTA: The PTA device has been operating stably, and the load remained at 79.9% (+0.2%). The social inventory has increased to 2.22 million tons (+20,000 tons). The TA cash - flow processing fee has been compressed again, and it has reached a historical low [4]. - Supply and Demand: The demand side saw a slight increase in the load of filament and staple fiber, and the polyester load rebounded to 88.7% (+0.4%). The filament sales were good this week, and the inventory pressure of finished filament products has been significantly relieved [4]. Polyester - Load: The comprehensive polyester load rebounded to 88.7% (+0.4%), the filament load increased to 91.3% (+0.8%), and the staple fiber load increased to 90.6% (+1.1%) [2][8]. - Sales: This week, affected by the increase in raw material prices, the downstream speculative sentiment and replenishment rhythm led to good filament sales, and the inventory pressure of finished filament products has been significantly relieved [2]. - Profit: The profits of each product have different degrees of change, with the POY profit decreasing by 24 yuan/ton, the FDY profit increasing by 26 yuan/ton, etc. [8]. Device Information - MEG Device Maintenance: Multiple ethylene - based and coal - based MEG devices are in the process of shutdown, maintenance, or restart, with different expected restart times [12]. - PX Device Maintenance: Many domestic and overseas PX devices are under maintenance, with different expected restart times [13]. - PTA Device Maintenance: Many domestic and overseas PTA devices are shut down, with different expected restart times [14]. Production and Investment Plans - PX: There is currently no planned production capacity for PX in the short term, and the subsequent planned production capacity is 8.5 million tons [15]. - PTA: The planned production capacity in 2025 is 8.7 million tons, and the subsequent planned production capacity is 14.7 million tons [15]. - MEG: The planned production capacity in 2025 is 1.6 million tons, and the subsequent planned production capacity is 3.8 million tons [15]. - Polyester: The total planned production capacity in 2025 is 485,000 tons, covering various products such as filaments, bottle chips, and slices [17].