金融市场波动，油脂震荡整理

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - This week, the prices of domestic oil futures fluctuated and consolidated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract closed at 8,144 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the P2509 palm oil contract closed at 8,936 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract closed at 9,457 yuan/ton, down 1.35% [5][30]. 2. Important Information Palm Oil - The president of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said that Indonesia's palm oil exports in 2025 may fall from 29.5 million tons last year to 28 million tons, while the production of crude palm oil is expected to increase to 50 million tons, up from 48.2 million tons last year [6][30]. - Malaysian palm oil prices fell 0.93%. The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from July 1 - 25 was 896,484 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.22% [6][30]. Soybean Oil - As of July 20, the flowering rate of US soybeans was 62% (47% last week, 63% last year, and a historical average of 63%), and the good - to - excellent rate was 68% (70% a week ago, 68% last year). US soybeans fell 1.28% this week [7][30]. 3. Spot Analysis - As of July 24, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,310 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at an average level compared to the past five years [9]. - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [10]. - As of July 24, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,540 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [12]. 4. Other Data - As of July 23, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 1.237 million tons, and the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 569,000 tons [16]. - As of July 24, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,756,740 tons [19]. - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 144 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [20][21]. - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 48 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [23]. 5. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, some domestic commodities rose significantly under the policy stimulus, but the oil futures prices remained stable and fluctuated. The supply - demand fundamentals of the Malaysian palm oil market are weak, lacking the impetus for active price increases [31]. - From the arrival schedule of soybeans in China, the arrival of soybeans from July to September is sufficient, and factories will continue to maintain high - volume crushing. The operating rate of key domestic oil mills remains high, with sufficient soybean oil supply, general downstream demand, and a rapid increase in domestic oil inventories. It is more likely that domestic oils will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [8][31].