高频数据扫描：“反内卷”与收益率曲线形态

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - "Anti - involution" drives price adjustment expectations, and its realization requires a loose liquidity environment. Since multiple industries promoted "anti - involution", some commodity futures prices have risen, and the spot prices of coking coal and rebar have also increased. The PPI index needs downstream demand, especially fixed - asset investment demand for industrial products, and a relatively loose monetary liquidity environment to reverse the downward trend [2][11]. - The effectiveness of "anti - involution" is more compatible with a steepening yield curve. If price adjustment expectations are realized, overall inflation will stabilize, and future interest - rate cut expectations will decline. The degree of steepening depends on the repair of downstream demand, especially the real estate market [2][13]. - The initial trade agreement between the US and Japan may lead the US to seek a similar agreement with the EU, with a possible 15% tariff on most EU goods. The possibility of an agreement between the two sides has increased, and international trade friction risks have eased to some extent [2][13]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - "Anti - involution" has strengthened price adjustment expectations. As of July 25, coking coal and rebar futures have risen above last December's average. Spot prices of coking coal and rebar also increased in mid - July. The CITIC Futures PPI commodity index has reached last December's average, but reversing the PPI downward trend requires downstream demand and a loose liquidity environment [11]. - A large amount of high - frequency data is provided, including price changes in agricultural products, consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, metals, real estate, and shipping, as well as their week - on - week and year - on - year changes [15][17]. Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends - Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, social retail sales, and export volume [20][30][32]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, PCE, and the Chicago Fed's financial conditions index, as well as the implied prospects of interest - rate hikes or cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [82][84][87]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - Seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented through charts, with indicators mainly showing month - on - month increases [94][98][103]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [142][144][146].