橡胶周报：短期涨幅较大，注意回调风险-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated upward with a large increase. In the future, the rubber market may be affected by factors such as the conflict on the Thai - Cambodian border, weather disturbances in the main production areas, and changes in supply and demand. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback [8][89]. - Key factors to watch include changes in domestic macro - sentiment, weather disturbances in the main rubber production areas, changes in terminal demand, progress of the zero - tariff policy, the latest progress of the EU anti - dumping investigation, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [9][89]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber futures, RU2509, ranged from 14,780 to 15,665 yuan/ton, showing a significant upward trend. As of July 25, 2025, it closed at 15,585 yuan/ton, up 775 points or 5.23% for the week [6][14]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; and the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton [19]. - The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,320 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [22]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis expanded significantly last week. As of July 25, 2025, the basis was - 235 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton from the previous week [27]. - As of July 25, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased compared to the previous week, with a larger increase in the domestic market [30]. 3.2 Important Market Information - There were international events such as the conflict on the Thai - Cambodian border on July 24, which led to concerns about rubber supply; statements from US political and financial figures regarding interest rates, trade agreements, and tariffs; and economic data from the US, the eurozone, and China, as well as the performance of the global and EU auto markets [32][33][35]. 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of May 31, 2025, the production of main natural rubber - producing countries increased. The total production in May 2025 was 722,700 tons, an increase of 217,500 tons or 43.05% from the previous month [43]. - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 703,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative production was 4,231,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [48][52]. - As of June 30, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [56]. 3.4 Demand - side Situation - As of July 24, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 75.99%, down 0.12% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.02%, down 0.08% from the previous week [58]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5%; monthly sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.83% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12% [61][64]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 97,864 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 37.14% and a month - on - month increase of 10.25% [70]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 102.749 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [73]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 60.31 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% [78]. 3.5 Inventory - side Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 182,020 tons, a decrease of 4,620 tons from the previous week [87]. - As of July 20, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.289 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons or 0.47% from the previous period. The social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 0.23%, and the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 493,000 tons, a decrease of 0.85%. The combined inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons or 0.28% from the previous period [87]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber supply is entering an increasing period. Recent weather disturbances in domestic and foreign main production areas have supported raw material prices, but there is a strong expectation of increased supply. In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 27.2% year - on - year [88]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rate of tire enterprises slightly decreased, downstream sales were sluggish, and inventory increased slowly. In June, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and heavy - truck sales also increased significantly. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Consumption - boosting policies are continuously being introduced [88]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao both decreased slightly [88]. 3.7后市展望 - The rubber market may be affected by the Thai - Cambodian border conflict, weather in the production areas, and supply - demand changes. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback [8][89]. - Key factors to watch include domestic macro - sentiment, weather in production areas, terminal demand, zero - tariff policy, EU anti - dumping investigation, and Sino - US tariffs [9][89]. 3.8 Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback. It is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish trading strategy and take profits on long positions when the price is high [10][90].