豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250728

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Both soybean meal and soybean oil futures are in a wide - range oscillation phase. For soybean meal, factors like high - level oil mill crushing, limited terminal feed demand, and uncertainties in US soybean产区 weather and Sino - US trade relations contribute to this situation. For soybean oil, high oil mill operating rates, low market transactions, and supportive policies from palm oil - producing regions and the US biofuel policy lead to the wide - range oscillation [7][28]. - It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both soybean meal and soybean oil futures [7][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures - Mid - line Market Analysis - The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. In the 29th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3055 million tons with an operating rate of 64.81%, and the soybean meal inventory was 998,400 tons, a 12.66% increase from the previous week. The high - level crushing leads to inventory accumulation, and the terminal feed demand increment is limited. However, uncertainties in US soybean产区 weather, Sino - US trade relations, and strong Brazilian discounts support the cost of soybean meal. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was in an upward channel, with a strong long - bias in funds. The M2509 contract was expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, operating in the range of 2920 - 3150 [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is in a sideways stage, with a slight long - bias in funds. The M2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term, operating in the range of 2920 - 3150 [11]. - Variety Diagnosis: The main force is slightly long - biased, the capital energy is basically stable, and the risk of a market reversal is high [14]. - Related Data: The report provides data on soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][20][22]. Soybean Oil Futures - Mid - line Market Analysis - The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. In the 29th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 43,800 tons, an increase of 190 tons from the previous week, and the commercial inventory in key regions was 1.0918 million tons, a 42,400 - ton increase from the previous week. High oil mill operating rates lead to increased output and inventory, while market transactions are light. However, the warming macro - sentiment and policies from palm oil - producing regions and the US biofuel policy support the market. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward channel, with a long - bias in funds. The Y2509 contract was expected to maintain a relatively strong operation in the short - term, operating in the range of 7950 - 8300 [31]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in a sideways stage, with a strong short - bias in funds. The Y2509 contract may maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, operating in the range of 7950 - 8280 [31]. - Variety Diagnosis: The main force is strongly short - biased, the main capital is flowing out slightly, and the risk of a market reversal is relatively high [35]. - Related Data: The report provides data on soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [41][42][46].