沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量初现下降-20250728

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The passage of the stablecoin - related bill in the US and the increased probability of the Fed's September rate - cut, along with disruptions in copper mine production or transportation overseas and a decline in China's electrolytic copper social inventory, could lead to price adjustments in Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on specific support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On July 25, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,250 yuan, down 640 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,147 lots, an increase of 14,228 lots; the open interest was 180,830 lots, down 666 lots; the inventory was 16,133 tons, down 50 tons; the average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 79,450 yuan, down 345 yuan [2]. - Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads: The Shanghai copper basis was 200 yuan, up 295 yuan from the previous day. Different regional spot premiums and discounts and spreads between different - month contracts showed various changes [2]. - London Copper: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 25, 2025, was 9,796, down 58.5 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a significant decrease from 128,475 the previous day. There were also changes in different contract spreads and the Shanghai - London copper price ratio [2]. - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 25, 2025, was 5.804, down 0.04 from the previous day. The total inventory weight was 248,635, an increase of 3,127 [2]. 3.2 Industry News - Mine Incidents: Red Chris mine in Canada suspended operations due to a tunnel collapse in the non - production project's underground working area, with three workers trapped. Anglo Asian Mining's Denirli operation in Azerbaijan increased copper concentrate production, while Russian Mornickel lowered its 2025 copper production forecast. Other mines also had various incidents and production adjustments [2][3]. - Mine Closures and Expansions: Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Australia next week, with about 500 people affected. Some mines, such as the Miraado copper mine in Ecuador and the Julong copper mine in China, have expansion plans [2][3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic and Policy News - The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill and allowed pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies. US consumer - end inflation (CPI) increased in June due to import tariffs. The initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected and the previous value. The probability of a Fed rate - cut in September increased but decreased in December [2][3]. 3.4 Investment Strategy Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on support and pressure levels: for Shanghai copper, 76,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000; for London copper, 9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200; for US copper, 5.0 - 5.2 and 6.0 - 7.0 [3].