长江期货粕类油脂周报-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, short - term soybean prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost line due to good weather in the US and sufficient supply in South America. In the North American season, low carry - over stocks and high planting costs will support the price. For soybean meal, high livestock and poultry inventories support demand, and the price is expected to be strong during the de - stocking period [6][93]. - For oils, although there are short - term factors leading to a decline in market sentiment, the fundamentals still support the price. It is expected that the price will experience a limited decline in the short term and then have an upward momentum [93]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Price and Market Performance - As of July 18, the spot price in East China was 2,840 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2509 contract closed at 3,031 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - Brazil's 2024/25 production reached 169 million tons, and China's imports in August are expected to exceed 10 million tons. The domestic oil mill operating rate has risen above 60%, and soybean meal inventories are accumulating. In the long - term, the carry - over stocks of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season are slightly increased, but the supply - demand structure is tightening [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the breeding profit in China has improved, and the high inventories of pigs and poultry support the demand for feed. The proportion of soybean meal in the feed formula has increased year - on - year, and the demand for soybean meal in the second half of the year is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1,141 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 990 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of soybean meal is around 2,750 - 2,820 yuan/ton [6]. 1.5 Strategy - For the M2509 contract, be cautious about long positions in the short term and pay attention to the support at around 2,980 yuan/ton. For the M2511 and M2601 contracts, go long at low prices in the long term [6]. 2. Oils 2.1 Price and Market Performance - As of the week of July 25, the palm oil 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 8,936 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 09 contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 8,144 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 129 yuan/ton to 9,457 yuan/ton [93][95]. 2.2 Palm Oil - Shipping data shows that the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 25 decreased by 9.23 - 15.22% compared with the previous month, while the production increased by 6.19 - 11.24% from July 1 - 20. The inventory in Indonesia is in a tight balance, and the price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise after a short - term decline [93]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The high - temperature in the US soybean - producing areas will ease in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial to the growth of soybeans. The EPA's RVO2 draft boosts the demand for biodiesel, and the short - term decline of US soybeans is limited. The domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to increase in the short term, but the supply will tighten in the fourth quarter [93]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The rainfall in Canada has improved the growth of rapeseed, and the price of Canadian rapeseed futures will continue to fluctuate in the short term. The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. The possibility of China restarting the import of Australian rapeseed needs attention [93]. 2.5 Strategy - In the short term, the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils will fluctuate in the ranges of 8,000 - 8,200, 8,800 - 9,200, and 9,300 - 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. Adopt the strategy of going long on dips [93].