铝：高位震荡，氧化铝：多空博弈激烈，铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is expected to experience high-level oscillations, alumina will see intense multi - short battles, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Aluminum and Alumina Futures Market - Aluminum Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,760 yuan, up 250 yuan from a week ago and 1,075 yuan from three months ago. The trading volume is 143,571 lots, a decrease of 1778 lots from the previous day. The LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,646 US dollars, up 8 US dollars from the previous day and 278 US dollars from three months ago [1] - Alumina Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 3,428 yuan, up 295 yuan from a week ago. The trading volume is 905,021 lots, an increase of 118,451 lots from the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot Market - Aluminum Spot: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 494,000 tons, up 23,000 tons from a week ago. The Shanghai bonded area premium is 113 US dollars, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Alumina Spot: The domestic average price of alumina is 3,255 yuan, up 18 yuan from a month ago. The alumina arrival price at Lianyungang is 399 US dollars per ton, up 5 US dollars from a week ago [1] 3.3 Industry News - In June, the year - on - year decline in the profits of China's large - scale industrial enterprises narrowed to 4.3%. The profit of the automobile industry increased by 96.8%, and the profits of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing and computer整机 manufacturing increased by 160.0% and 97.2% respectively [3] - Trump believes that Powell will start to suggest interest rate cuts and that US manufacturers benefit from a weaker dollar [3] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum is 0 (neutral), alumina is - 1 (weakly bearish), and aluminum alloy is 0 (neutral) [3]