A 股市场，上周持续走强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the A-share market showed many highlights, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3,600 points during the week. The current market risk appetite is high, and the capital acceptance ability is strong. The policy and liquidity environment have entered a relatively favorable stage, and the expansion of the general trend is the main theme of the market. However, as the market rises rapidly, structural risks are emerging, and there is a game between fundamental pressure and policy hedging. This week, the market is expected to continue the pattern of shock and strength. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic policy guidance and the results of China-US trade talks [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - A-share Indexes: On July 25, the three major A-share indexes collectively declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33% to 3,593.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22% to 11,168.14 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.23% to 2,340.06 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 178.73 billion yuan [2]. - Bond Market: Last week, 30-year and 10-year treasury bond futures rose, while 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures fell. The 30-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 2.14% and closed at 117.950 yuan; the 10-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 0.58% and closed at 108.180 yuan; the 5-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 0.41% and closed at 105.570 yuan; the 2-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 0.12% and closed at 102.310 yuan [3]. - Stock Index Futures Market: Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a continuous strengthening trend. The CSI 300 futures (IF2509) closed at 4,116.0 with a weekly increase of 1.84%; the SSE 50 futures (IH2509) closed at 2,796.8 with a weekly increase of 1.08%; the CSI 500 futures (IC2509) closed at 6,216.0 with a weekly increase of 3.59%; the CSI 1000 futures (IM2509) closed at 6,605.8 with a weekly increase of 3.00% [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Industrial Profit: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year-on-year. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. From January to June, the profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 13.7 times year-on-year, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 22.8%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 13%, and the mining industry's profits decreased by 30.3% year-on-year [8]. - Agricultural Policy: Ten departments including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption", aiming to optimize the supply of high-quality green products, meet multi-level consumption needs, and promote the R & D of new food ingredients [8]. - US Economic Data and Policy: The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting from July 29 to 30. The market generally expects the Fed to keep the interest rate in the current range of 4.25% - 4.5%. The US will release the second-quarter GDP preliminary data on July 30, with the market expecting an annualized quarterly rate of 2.5%. On August 1, the US will release the July non-farm payroll data, with the market expecting an increase of 102,000 in employment and an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% [9]. - Central Bank Operations: The central bank conducted 165.63 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 40 billion yuan of MLF operations, and 10 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit operations this week. There were 172.68 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, 20 billion yuan of MLF maturities, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit maturities. The net investment for the whole week was 10.95 billion yuan. Next week, there will be 165.63 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [9][10]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - Index Valuation: As of July 18, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.59 times, with a percentile of 77.45%, and the PB was 1.43 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.48 times, with a percentile of 85.1%, and the PB was 1.27 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 41.19 times, with a percentile of 66.27%, and the PB was 2.29 times [14]. - Stock-Bond Yield Spread: The stock-bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. Two formulas are provided for calculation. The data of the CSI 300 stock-bond yield spread is presented [18].