【UR周报20250727】政策面影响，尿素价格跟随上行-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The urea contract UR509 is expected to be prone to decline in the short - term but with limited downside space, supported at the 1700 price level [3]. - The domestic urea supply remains high, and the pressure is difficult to relieve. The demand has weakened compared with the previous period. The agricultural demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the industrial compound fertilizer demand is at a low level. The export policy is gradually being implemented, and attention should be paid to the specific export volume later [3][7][8]. - The futures price of urea followed the general upward trend of bulk commodities due to the policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity" but may decline as speculative funds leave the market. Overall, urea is in a pattern with upper - limit suppression and lower - limit support and is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Fundamental Overview - Cost: Coal prices are weakly operating, and coal - based urea production costs are low. The profit of coal - based urea has slightly increased. The natural gas price in the southwest region is stable, and the profit of gas - based urea is stable [7]. - Supply: Although the number of domestic overhaul devices has increased, it has little impact on the supply pattern. The domestic production volume remains high year - on - year, and the supply is generally loose [7]. - Demand: In the agricultural sector, the fertilizer return in the north is basically over, and there is still some demand for top - dressing rice in the south. The overall support is weak as the demand enters the traditional off - season. In the industrial sector, the pre - sale of compound fertilizers is progressing slowly, and downstream procurement is cautious. In the export sector, the news of the second batch of export quotas has basically landed, with an expected quota of 100 - 150 tons, slightly lower than market expectations, and the first - batch export quota is being exported in an orderly manner [7]. 3.2 Price, Spread, and Profit - Spot Price: The urea spot market fluctuated upward this week, with the average price in mainstream regions rising by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Affected by the macro - policy, the price increased, but the upward momentum was insufficient due to weak domestic demand and slow progress of the second - batch export quota [15][26]. - Regional Spread: The regional spreads this week were within the normal range [37]. - Spot Profit: The coal - based urea profit increased slightly this week due to the slight increase in the ex - factory price of urea. The gas - based urea profit remained stable because the natural gas price was stable [50]. - Overseas Price and Spread: India's IPL issued a tender to purchase 200,000 tons of urea, which stabilized the weak market. Before the Indian tender, the demand in many key markets was tepid [66]. - Basis and Calendar Spread: The 9 - 1 spread weakened by 29 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The basis continued to weaken as both the spot and futures prices declined this week. For example, the basis of the 09 contract in Henan weakened by 18 yuan/ton compared with last week [72]. 3.3 Supply - Output and Operation - Output and Operation Rate (Longzhong): The daily output of urea on July 25, 2025, was 209,040 tons. The weekly output on July 24 was 135.47 tons, a decrease of 1.40 tons from last week. The operation rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.87% from last week, with coal - based urea at 85.78% and gas - based urea at 76.50% [84][94]. - Output and Operation Rate (Baichuan): The weekly output of urea was 135.98 tons, a decrease of 2.50 tons from the previous period. The operation rate was 83.09%, a decrease of 1.53% from the previous period, with coal - based urea at 83.36% and gas - based urea at 82.20% [95]. - Device Overhaul: The theoretical output loss due to urea device overhauls this week was 17.82 tons, an increase of 1.37 tons from last week [101]. 3.4 Demand - Agricultural Fertilization: No specific demand - related content was provided, only the crop development periods were given [109][112][113]. - Compound Fertilizer: The compound fertilizer market fluctuated slightly this week, with the price in some areas rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The operation rate increased by 1.03% to 33.58%, and the inventory increased by 0.63 tons to 74.21 tons [117]. - Melamine: The weekly output of melamine on July 24 was 37,603 tons, and the operation rate was 65.20%, an increase of 0.96% from last week. The market was operating weakly, with weak supply - demand fundamentals and no strong positive factors [126][127]. 3.5 Inventory - Longzhong Caliber: The enterprise inventory this week was 112.78 tons, a decrease of 1.97 tons from last week. The port inventory was 41.9 tons, an increase of 2.1 tons from last week [138]. - Baichuan Caliber: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory data are provided in tons, but specific changes compared with the previous period are not clearly described [142][145][147]. - Regional Inventory: The inventory data of different regions such as the northwest, south - central, southwest, northeast, north, and central China are provided, but specific changes are not clearly described [150][152][156][157][162].