尿素早评：焦煤回落，尿素或有补跌-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - After the previous trading day, UR fluctuated upwards and closed at 1803. On Friday night, coking coal prices dropped and hit the daily limit. The bullish sentiment brought by anti - involution may be adjusted, and urea prices may experience a compensatory decline today. Fundamentally, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Enterprise inventories continue to decline slightly, mainly due to increased port collection. Upstream enterprise inventories are still around 750,000 tons. In terms of demand, the top - dressing demand in July will still support prices, but once domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. In the short term, policy expectations may fluctuate repeatedly, and it is recommended to wait and see for now (View Score: - 1) [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea Futures Prices: On July 25, compared with July 24, UR01 in Shandong increased by 11 yuan/ton (0.61%), UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.10%), UR05 increased by 18 yuan/ton (1.00%), and UR09 increased by 18 yuan/ton (1.01%) [1] - Domestic Spot Prices: In Henan, small - particle urea decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.09%); in Hebei and Northeast, there was no change; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.55%) [1] - Upstream Costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, as well as the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu, remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 38 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information - In the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1786 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1813 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1781 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1803 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1798 yuan/ton. The holding volume of 2509 was 171,609 lots [1]