南华锌周报：反内卷支撑高位震荡，短期回归基本面可能性较大-20250728

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the zinc industry is mainly "oscillating" [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, zinc prices showed a wide - range oscillation, closing at 22,885 yuan per ton. Domestic zinc ingot inventories are at a low level in recent years, and LME inventories are also decreasing. The overall zinc market was strongly influenced by anti - involution sentiment this week, remaining relatively strong, but the upward momentum was insufficient after Monday, gradually moving towards high - level oscillation, with a decline in Friday's night session [1] - In the short term, if there are no strong policy measures to stimulate the non - ferrous industry again, the market will return to fundamentals, and it is advisable to sell on rallies overall [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - Futures Market: The closing price of SHFE zinc futures' main contract was 22,885 yuan, up 3.41% week - on - week; LME zinc closed at 2,823.5 dollars, up 4.15% week - on - week [6] - Spot Market: The price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,770 yuan per ton, up 2.02% week - on - week; 1 zinc ingot was 22,700 yuan per ton, also up 2.02% week - on - week [16] 2. Industry News - Canadian Mining Company Teck Resources: In Q2 2025, Red Dog mine produced 136,600 metal tons of zinc concentrate, slightly down year - on - year due to lower ore grades; lead concentrate production remained stable at 27,500 tons. The sales volume of zinc concentrate in Q2 was 35,100 metal tons, down 35% year - on - year, but still higher than the guidance range. Teck expects the inventory accumulated in the first half of the year to be released in Q3, with a sales guidance range of 200,000 - 250,000 metal tons. Trail smelter produced 50,900 tons of refined zinc in Q2, 14,000 tons less than last year, in line with the company's plan to maximize profitability by reducing production [2] - Glencore: Glencore announced on July 22 that it would sell its Lady Loretta zinc mine and related land to Austral Resources. Lady Loretta is expected to close at the end of 2025, and after its closure, the lead - zinc concentrate production of Mount Isa may decrease by about one - third [3] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side - Mining End: In June, zinc ore imports declined, but were still strong year - on - year. The port inventory of zinc concentrates in China was 354,000 tons, up 86,000 tons week - on - week [1] - Smelting End: The operating rate of smelters remained strong this week, with a strong willingness to resume production. The treatment charge (TC) continued to rise, and profit repair was stable [3] - Demand Side: The operating rate of downstream industries mainly decreased week - on - week, affected by the off - season of consumption and high zinc prices this week, showing a weak performance [3] 4. Inventory Situation - Domestic inventories increased due to high zinc prices, showing short - term oscillation. With the resumption of smelter production and weak downstream demand, inventories may gradually rise. LME zinc inventories are at a low level in recent years, supporting zinc prices [5] 5. Production and Utilization Rate - In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of zinc concentrates was 100.81%, with a month - on - month increase of 10.45% and a year - on - year increase of 4.03% [33] - In June 2025, the production of refined zinc was 496,700 tons, down 1.88% year - on - year; the production of zinc concentrates was 328,300 tons, up 4.75% year - on - year [33] 6. Import and Export Data - In June 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 329,957 tons, up 22.42% year - on - year; the import volume of refined zinc was 36,061 tons, up 3.24% year - on - year [36] 7. Supply - Demand Balance - In June 2025, the supply - demand balance of zinc concentrates was - 2,000 metal tons, down 96.5% year - on - year and 103.85% month - on - month; the supply - demand balance of refined zinc was 24,000 tons, down 2500.00% year - on - year and 211.11% month - on - month [45] 8. Downstream Consumption - The weekly operating rates of galvanizing, zinc oxide, and die - casting zinc alloys were 59.42%, 55.99%, and 51.03% respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 0.3%, - 0.33%, and - 0.92% [48]