Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall trend of the stock index is positive, but it may experience a phased adjustment. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting this week [3]. - In the RMB exchange rate market, investors can use options to hedge tail risks. Focus on the progress of China - US trade consultations in the next week [2]. - For the container shipping industry, the SCFI European line has rebounded, but the near - term contracts may have a short - term correction, and the overall may fluctuate slightly downward [5]. - In the precious metals market, focus on the Fed FOMC meeting and important US economic data this week. The mid - to long - term trend of gold and silver may be bullish, while the short - term volatility is intense [5]. - For base metals, copper prices may decline slightly; aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term; zinc is in a high - level shock; nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within a certain range; tin prices may decline slightly; lead is mainly in a shock state [8][10][12][13][15][21]. - In the energy and chemical industry, crude oil is in a narrow - range shock adjustment stage; PX - PTA can be considered to expand the processing fee at low prices; for other energy and chemical products, pay attention to policy changes and market fundamentals [29][30][33]. - In the black metal market, the over - heated sentiment in the steel market may lead to a short - term correction, but the rise may not end; the contradiction in the iron ore market is accumulating; the coal - coke market may return to rationality; for silicon iron and silicon manganese, pay attention to risks [23][24][26][27]. - For agricultural products, the market game for live pigs has intensified [50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs RMB Exchange Rate - Market Review: On Friday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1679 at 16:30, down 132 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1680 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1419, down 34 basis points [2]. - Important Information: Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, and most trade agreements would be reached before August. The Russian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate from 20% to 18% [2]. - Core Logic: The Fed's independence is being challenged. Investors can use options to hedge tail risks. Focus on China - US trade consultations in the next week [2]. Stock Index - Market Review: On Friday, the stock index showed mixed trends, with the large - cap index falling and the small - and medium - cap index rising. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 573.69 billion yuan [3]. - Important Information: China's industrial enterprise profits in June decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the equipment manufacturing industry played a prominent supporting role. The State Council executive meeting deployed measures for gradually promoting free pre - school education [3]. - Core Logic: The stock index may experience a phased adjustment, but the overall trend is positive. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting this week [3]. Container Shipping - Market Review: On Friday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) contracts fluctuated after a sharp decline at the opening. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends [4]. - Important Information: The freight quotes of Maersk and ONE for shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam showed different changes [4]. - Core Logic: The SCFI European line has rebounded, but the near - term contracts may have a short - term correction, and the overall may fluctuate slightly downward [5]. Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - Market Review: Last week, the precious metals market showed a reverse V - shaped trend. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased sharply, and there was a large inflow of funds into US gold and silver ETFs at the beginning of the week, but the price reversed on Wednesday [5]. - Important Information: The US - Japan and US - EU trade agreements were close to being reached, and the domestic anti - involution policy led to a general rise in commodities and the stock market [5]. - Core Logic: Focus on the Fed FOMC meeting and important US economic data this week. The mid - to long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility is intense [5]. Base Metals Copper - Market Review: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper rose and then fell during the week, and the inventory showed different trends in different markets [8]. - Important Information: Teck Resources lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine due to tailings storage problems [8]. - Core Logic: Copper prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades [9]. Aluminum - Market Review: The price of Shanghai aluminum showed a slight increase, and the trading volume and positions changed. The price of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also had corresponding changes [9]. - Important Information: The anti - involution policy affected the market sentiment, and the exchange issued a position limit notice [9][10]. - Core Logic: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, considering the influence of macro events and fundamentals [10]. Zinc - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai zinc fell slightly, and the trading volume and positions decreased [12]. - Important Information: The "anti - involution" sentiment affected the market [12]. - Core Logic: Zinc is in a high - level shock. The supply may gradually shift from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. Appropriate short - selling at high prices is recommended [12]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a strong trend during the week but回调 on Friday night. The price of stainless steel also showed an upward trend during the week [13]. - Important Information: The anti - involution policy and relevant news affected the market, and the supply of nickel ore was expected to be loose [14]. - Core Logic: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan and [12,500 - 13,100] yuan respectively [15]. Tin - Market Review: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the week, and the inventory was stable [15]. - Important Information: The anti - involution policy affected the price [15]. - Core Logic: Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades [16]. Lead - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai lead rose slightly, and the trading volume and positions increased [21]. - Important Information: The production of a refinery in Anhui recovered, and a large - scale recycled lead refinery in Inner Mongolia was expected to produce lead next week [21]. - Core Logic: Lead is mainly in a shock state, affected by the supply - demand relationship and market sentiment [22]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Market Review: Speculative position reduction and inventory increase suppressed oil prices, and the prices of US and Brent crude oil futures fell [29]. - Important Information: Trump announced that the US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the Houthi armed forces upgraded the maritime blockade [29]. - Core Logic: The crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock adjustment stage. Pay attention to the results of important macro meetings this week [30]. PTA - PX - Market Review: PX - PTA was generally strong under the influence of commodity sentiment and polyester demand improvement [30]. - Important Information: PX Tianjin Petrochemical carried out maintenance, and there were rumors of PTA plant maintenance in August [30][31]. - Core Logic: The PX - TA industry chain has limited fundamental drivers. Consider expanding the processing fee at low prices [32]. Other Energy and Chemical Products - Market Review and Core Logic: Each product has different market performances and core logics, mainly affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and market sentiments. For example, MEG - bottle chips are recommended to wait and see; methanol is mainly driven by macro factors; PP and PE are affected by macro emotions and fundamentals; PVC is recommended to wait and see in the short term; BZ and styrene are affected by macro emotions and fundamentals; fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil have different supply - demand and inventory situations; asphalt follows the cost - end shock; urea is expected to fluctuate weakly; glass and soda ash are affected by anti - involution expectations and fundamentals; pulp is driven by macro emotions;烧碱 focuses on near - month warehouse receipts [32][33][35][37][38][39][41][42][43][44][45][47][48][50]. Black Metal Market Steel - Market Review: On Friday night, coking coal hit the daily limit down, and black metal varieties followed suit [23]. - Important Information: The profits of industrial enterprises in the first half of the year were announced, and there were price adjustment and position limit news in the coking coal market [23]. - Core Logic: The over - heated sentiment in the steel market may lead to a short - term correction, but the rise may not end. Pay attention to the actual demand and tariff policies [23]. Iron Ore - Market Review: The price of iron ore has corrected, while coking coal has maintained a strong upward trend [23]. - Important Information: The global iron ore shipping volume is at a seasonal high, and the dry bulk freight has increased [24]. - Core Logic: The fundamentals of iron ore are okay, but the room for improvement is limited. The contradiction in the market is accumulating, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Review: The price of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly this week, and the coking coal futures limit on Friday night caused the price to fall [24][26]. - Important Information: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke have changed, and the inventory situation is different [25]. - Core Logic: The coal - coke market may return to rationality, and pay attention to the Politburo meeting and China - US trade negotiations [26]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - Market Review: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rose last week, and they were affected by the anti - involution meeting and the decline of coking coal futures on Friday night [27]. - Important Information: The supply and demand, inventory, and profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed [27]. - Core Logic: The short - term risk of chasing high is high, and pay attention to the implementation of policies and risk control [28]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Review: The futures price of live pigs showed a slight increase [50]. - Important Information: No specific important information is provided. - Core Logic: The market game for live pigs has intensified [50].
金融期货早评-20250728
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-28 02:49