碳酸锂日评：情绪扩大扰动-20250728

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On July 25, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit during the session. The spot market trading was light, and the basis discount widened. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also rose. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased. In June, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production schedule of ternary materials rose, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate decreased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipment volume was average. The production schedule of energy storage batteries increased in June. The registered warehouse receipts increased, the smelter destocked, and the downstream and other inventories increased. The "anti - involution" sentiment continued, with a large divergence between spot buyers and sellers. The high - grade products tumbled after leading the rise on Friday night. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options (View score: - 1) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Contract Closing Prices: On July 25, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 79,400 yuan/ton, the continuous first contract was 80,520 yuan/ton, the continuous second contract was 79,160 yuan/ton, and the continuous third contract was 80,520 yuan/ton [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 1,203,424 hands (- 566,859), and the open interest was 491,088 hands (+ 54,361) [1] - Inventory: The inventory was 10,239 tons [1] - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and the continuous first contract was - 1,120 yuan/ton, the spread between the continuous first and the continuous second contract was 1,360 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous second and the continuous third contract was 0 yuan/ton. The basis was - 3,310 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - Lithium Compounds: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,900 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,700 yuan/ton, the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 63,120 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder type) was 65,670 yuan/ton [1] - Lithium Ore: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 711 US dollars/ton, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 945 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,790 yuan/ton [1] - Other Materials: The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 75,505 yuan/ton, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,255 yuan/ton, and the average price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/ domestic) was 220,400 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Industry News - Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and the EU, including a 15% tariff on the EU, 600 billion US dollars of investment in the US by the EU, 0 tariffs on the US by EU countries, the EU's purchase of US military equipment, and the purchase of US energy products worth 750 billion US dollars [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that from the trading time on July 28, 2025, non - futures company members or clients' single - day opening volume on the lithium carbonate futures LC2509 contract shall not exceed 3,000 hands [1] 3.4 Inventory Data - The SMM lithium carbonate inventory: The smelter inventory was 40,765 tons, the downstream inventory was 55,385 tons, other inventory was 41,430 tons, and the total inventory was 140,793 tons [1]