Group 1: Core Views - Total: The decline in profits has narrowed, and the manufacturing industry has improved significantly. In the first half of 2025, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in China reached 343.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. In June, the year-on-year decline in profits narrowed significantly, with a profit of 71.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, narrowing by 4.8 percentage points compared with May. The profit of the manufacturing industry turned from a 4.1% decline in May to a 1.4% increase, becoming the main driving force. The equipment manufacturing industry performed particularly prominently, with the profit growth rate turning from negative to positive, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% (a 2.9% decline in May), contributing 3.8 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth. In terms of operating income, it increased by 2.5% year-on-year from January to June, and the single-month growth rate in June was the same as that in May (1.0%), providing basic support for the recovery of corporate profits [3]. - Structure: The "Two New" policies continue to exert force, and high-end manufacturing and consumption upgrading lead the growth. The effects of the "Two New" policies continue to appear, and the midstream manufacturing industry has improved: the profit of medical instrument and equipment manufacturing increased by 12.1% year-on-year, the production of special equipment for printing, pharmaceutical, and daily chemical products increased by 10.5%, and the manufacturing of general parts increased by 9.5%. The replacement of consumer goods with old ones has activated demand: the policies in the fields of electronics and home appliances have shown results, the profit of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing soared by 160.0%, computer整机 manufacturing increased by 97.2%, and household air conditioner manufacturing increased by 21.0%. In addition, the profit of the automobile industry soared by 96.8% driven by promotions and exports, and the profit growth rates of the electrical machinery and instrumentation industries reached 18.7% and 12.3%. From an industry perspective, the transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green has achieved remarkable results. The profit of electronic special material manufacturing increased by 68.1%, and the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries increased by 72.8%. The profit of the upstream mining industry decreased by 30.3% year-on-year, and coal mining decreased by 53.0%. Traditional industries are still under pressure. Currently, the recovery of industrial profits mainly relies on structural improvement driven by policies. In the future, it is necessary to further consolidate the momentum of equipment manufacturing and consumption upgrading, and at the same time address the challenges of upstream costs and insufficient demand. With the increase of policies to expand domestic demand and the implementation of anti-involution policies, industrial profits are expected to continue the recovery trend in the third quarter [4]. Group 2: National Large-Scale Industrial Enterprise Profits from January to June 2025 - Overall profit: From January to June 2025, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in China was 343.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% (calculated on a comparable basis). Among them, state-owned holding enterprises achieved a total profit of 110.912 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%; joint-stock enterprises achieved a total profit of 253.304 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1%; foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises achieved a total profit of 88.231 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; private enterprises achieved a total profit of 93.897 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% [31]. - Industry profit: From January to June, the mining industry achieved a total profit of 42.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.3%; the manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 259.006 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5%; the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water achieved a total profit of 41.704 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3% [31]. - Main industry profit: From January to June, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 13.7 times year-on-year, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 22.8%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 13.0%, the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 7.8%, the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 6.5%, the power and heat production and supply industry increased by 5.6%, the special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 4.4%, the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 3.6%, the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 3.5%, the non-metallic mineral products industry decreased by 5.4%, the textile industry decreased by 8.1%, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry decreased by 9.0%, the oil and gas extraction industry decreased by 11.5%, the coal mining and washing industry decreased by 53.0%, and the oil, coal, and other fuel processing industry increased its losses year-on-year [32]. - Operating income and cost: From January to June, large-scale industrial enterprises achieved an operating income of 66.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%; the operating cost was 57.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.8%; the operating income profit margin was 5.15%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.22 percentage points. At the end of June, the total assets of large-scale industrial enterprises were 183.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%; the total liabilities were 105.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.4%; the owner's equity was 77.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7%; the asset-liability ratio was 57.9%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [32]. - Accounts receivable and inventory: At the end of June, the accounts receivable of large-scale industrial enterprises were 26.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; the finished product inventory was 6.60 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.1%. From January to June, the cost per 100 yuan of operating income of large-scale industrial enterprises was 85.54 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.26 yuan; the expense per 100 yuan of operating income was 8.38 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.10 yuan. At the end of June, the operating income per 100 yuan of assets of large-scale industrial enterprises was 73.9 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9 yuan; the per capita operating income was 1.823 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56,000 yuan; the turnover days of finished product inventory were 20.4 days, a year-on-year increase of 0.1 day; the average collection period of accounts receivable was 69.8 days, a year-on-year increase of 3.9 days [33]. Group 3: Interpretation of Industrial Enterprise Profit Data by Yu Weining, a Statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics - Revenue and profit: In June, the year-on-year decline in the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises narrowed compared with May. The operating income of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that in May. The continuous growth of industrial enterprise revenue created favorable conditions for the recovery of corporate profits. In June, large-scale industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 71.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, and the decline narrowed by 4.8 percentage points compared with May. Among them, the manufacturing industry improved significantly, and the profit turned from a 4.1% decline in May to a 1.4% increase. From a cumulative perspective, from January to June, the operating income of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 2.5%, and the profit decreased by 1.8% [36]. - Equipment manufacturing industry: In June, the operating income of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.0% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than in May; the profit turned from a 2.9% decline in May to a 9.6% increase, driving the profit growth of all large-scale industrial enterprises by 3.8 percentage points, and playing a prominent supporting role in the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises. Among the 8 industries in the equipment manufacturing industry, the profits of 4 industries increased. Among them, the profit of the automobile industry increased by 96.8% due to factors such as the rapid increase in sales driven by promotions and the increase in investment income of key enterprises; the profits of the electrical machinery, instrumentation, and metal products industries increased by 18.7%, 12.3%, and 6.2% respectively [37]. - High-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing: In June, the profits of industries related to high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing in the manufacturing industry increased rapidly, providing stable support for the high-quality development of the industry. Among them, the profits of industries such as electronic special material manufacturing, aircraft manufacturing, and marine engineering equipment manufacturing in the high-end equipment manufacturing industry increased by 68.1%, 19.0%, and 17.8% respectively year-on-year; the acceleration of the production of intelligent and automated products drove the increase in profits of related industries, and the profits of industries such as intelligent consumer equipment manufacturing and drawing, computing, and measuring instrument manufacturing increased by 40.9% and 12.5% respectively; the acceleration of the formation of green production and green lifestyle promoted the growth of profits of related industries, and the profits of industries such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing, biomass power generation, and environmental monitoring special instrument and meter manufacturing increased by 72.8%, 24.5%, and 22.2% respectively [38]. - "Two New" policy: Since this year, the scope of support categories and subsidies for the "Two New" policy has been continuously expanded, driving significant improvement in the profits of related industries. Driven by large-scale equipment renewal policies, in June, the profits of industries such as medical instrument and equipment manufacturing, printing, pharmaceutical, and daily chemical product production special equipment manufacturing, and general parts manufacturing increased rapidly, with year-on-year increases of 12.1%, 10.5%, and 9.5% respectively. The policies of replacing old consumer goods with new ones in the fields of electronics, home appliances, and kitchen and bathroom products continued to show results. In June, the profits of industries such as intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing, computer整机 manufacturing, household air conditioner manufacturing, and household ventilation appliance manufacturing increased by 160.0%, 97.2%, 21.0%, and 9.7% respectively; the profits of industries related to the industrial chain, such as optoelectronic device manufacturing and computer component manufacturing, increased by 29.6% and 16.9% respectively [38].
中国盈利系列十二：盈利逐步修复
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-28 02:59