国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250728

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, trend intensities are given for each commodity, with values ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). For example, PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, benzene, styrene, soda ash, PVC, fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a bearish or weakly bearish outlook; asphalt has a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook; LPG has a trend intensity of 0, also neutral [2][9][14][17][20][34][38][41][46][50][54][58][61][66][70][78][84] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as the "anti - involution" policy, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit structures. For most commodities, short - term trends are affected by factors like speculative capital flows, while medium - term trends are related to supply - side changes and policy expectations. For example, in the case of PX, although the short - term trend is weakening, the PXN spread has increased, and future Asian supply is expected to rise; for synthetic rubber and methanol, short - term high - level corrections are expected, followed by medium - term oscillations [6][10][19][56] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The market sentiment is boosted by the "anti - involution" policy, and the PX - naphtha spread has widened. The domestic PX start - up rate is 79.9%, and the Asian overall start - up rate is 72.9%. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase. The unilateral trend is weakening, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [6][10] - PTA: Supply pressure is gradually emerging. The PTA start - up rate remains at 79.7%. The unilateral trend is weakening, and the industry can hedge at high prices. Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA in the 01 contract [10][11] - MEG: The trend is weakening. Saudi Arabian ethylene glycol plants have restarted, and some EO - EG co - production plants plan to switch to EG production. Import volumes are expected to fluctuate, and the supply is relatively loose in the short term [8][12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The macro atmosphere is bullish, but the supply is affected by rainfall and geopolitical conflicts. The Shanghai market full - latex and Thai mixed rubber prices are expected to move within certain ranges [13][16] - Synthetic Rubber: It is expected to have a short - term correction and a medium - term oscillation. The short - term correction is due to the outflow of speculative funds and the strengthening of the basis, while the medium - term oscillation is supported by policies, the stabilization of raw material prices, and the improvement of the industrial chain fundamentals [17][19] Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to have a slow shipment and oscillate repeatedly. The domestic weekly production has decreased, and both factory and social inventories have decreased. The trend intensity is neutral [20][33] LLDPE, PP, and PVC - LLDPE: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The market price has mostly increased, but downstream demand is weak. The supply pressure will gradually increase in the future, and the anti - involution policy has little impact on the industry [34][35] - PP: The spot price has a small increase, but the transaction is light. The futures price has boosted the spot market, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and the inventory pressure remains [38][39] - PVC: It is expected to be weak in the short term. The market is in a situation of high production and high inventory, and the anti - involution policy has little impact. The supply reduction drive is insufficient, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate [78][79] Other Commodities - Paper Pulp: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The import volume from the United States has decreased, but it is compensated by imports from other countries and domestic production. The supply is in a high - inventory state, and the demand is weak [46][48][49] - Glass: The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has driven the spot market, and the enterprise inventory has decreased [50][51] - Methanol and Urea: Both are expected to have short - term corrections and medium - term oscillations. The short - term correction is due to the outflow of speculative funds and the strengthening of the basis, while the medium - term oscillation is supported by policies and supply - demand factors [54][56][58][60] - Benzene and Styrene: Benzene has a weak oscillation, and styrene has a large inventory pressure and is recommended as a short - position allocation. The supply of benzene is increasing, and the supply of styrene is increasing while demand is decreasing [2][61][62] - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The domestic market is oscillating strongly, with enterprises raising prices and downstream demand being stable [64][66] - LPG and Propylene: LPG has high chemical demand and relatively resistant prices; propylene has a short - term weak supply - demand relationship [69][70] - Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Fuel oil continues to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a small decline, with the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market remaining stable for the time being [84] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It is recommended to short at high levels for the 10 - contract and hold the 10 - 12 spread reversal position. The freight rates of European and US - West routes show different trends [86]