Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is likely to rise in the short - term but has limited upside potential, facing pressure at the [5500] price level [3]. - The supply of PVC shows a weakening trend, with high production maintained. Domestic and export demand is declining, and social inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks. Although the current profit performance reflects a weak reality, under the policy expectations of capacity structure optimization, there is an increase in black and building material varieties. Attention should be paid to whether the rising coal price can repair the profits of the coal - based cost industry chain [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fundamental Supply - Demand Situation - Supply: There is an expectation of tightened supply at the calcium carbide/PVC end. The recent sharp rise in coal prices may strongly support costs, and attention should be paid to the upward shift of the entire industrial chain price from coal prices to calcium carbide [9]. - Demand - Inventory: On July 25, the domestic PVC supply - side开工率 increased, enterprises received good orders, and market arrivals were normal. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm was poor, mainly from hedgers. The total inventory in East and South China continued to increase. The total inventory in the East and South China sample warehouses was 402,900 tons, up 3.65% from the previous period and down 26.93% year - on - year [10]. - Demand - Calcium Carbide: This week, the calcium carbide price slightly declined. The average calcium carbide industry开工率 rose to 72.20%, up 0.9% from the previous week. In the future, most calcium carbide plants may maintain normal operations, but the increase in开工率 may be limited due to peak - shaving production in Inner Mongolia and the summer electricity peak. PVC plants have many maintenance plans in July and August, so the demand for calcium carbide is expected to decrease. If there is an unexpected reduction in supply or the rising coal price is transmitted to the cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [11][75]. - Demand - Caustic Soda: Most chlor - alkali enterprises are operating normally with sufficient supply. Some areas are supported by plant maintenance. In terms of downstream demand, the alumina industry provides rigid support, but non - aluminum industries perform averagely. Some enterprises face certain sales pressure, so the price has no strong upward driving force [12]. - Demand - Production Capacity: In the first quarter of 2025, 500,000 tons of production capacity were put into operation. 900,000 tons of production capacity are expected to be put into operation from July to August, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of 6.37% [13]. - Demand - Export: This week, the export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 11.66% week - on - week and increased by 56% year - on - year. Exports to India are expected to slow down in summer [14]. 3.2 Disk Data - This week, both PVC futures and spot prices rose. The basis discount to the disk increased, with the East China 09 basis weakening to around - 220. The 9 - 1 spread changed little, around - 113. The 09 contract position was around 860,000 lots, and the warehouse receipts increased to around 56,400 lots [21]. 3.3 Regional and Quality Spreads - Regional Spread: The spread between East and South China for calcium carbide - based PVC strengthened significantly to 33, and the spread between East and North China for calcium carbide - based PVC strengthened significantly to 223 [34]. - Ethylene - Calcium Carbide Spread: The ethylene - calcium carbide spread weakened to - 3 [34]. 3.4 Profit Performance - Calcium Carbide - Based Profit: The current calcium carbide - based production capacity accounts for 74%. In areas with limited cost fluctuations and a significant increase in PVC spot prices, profits in various regions have improved significantly. North China has achieved profitability. Northwest integrated enterprises' comprehensive profit has expanded to around 680 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of purchasing calcium carbide in the Northwest is around 1,000 yuan/ton. Shandong's chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has turned from loss to profit at around 100 yuan/ton [45]. - Ethylene - Based Profit: The current ethylene - based production capacity accounts for about 23.5%. The profit of purchasing vinyl chloride is around the break - even point, and the profit of purchasing ethylene is a loss of 200 yuan/ton [46]. 3.5 Industrial Chain - Related Products - Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Lanthanum Coke: On July 25, the price of lanthanum coke remained stable. The average transaction price in the Shaanxi market was 580 - 630 yuan/ton. The开工率 of sample enterprises was 39.14%, unchanged from the previous week. In the future, the开工 rate may increase, and attention should be paid to the transmission of coal prices to lanthanum coke and calcium carbide prices [69]. - Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Calcium Carbide: On July 25, the calcium carbide price declined slightly. The average industry开工率 rose to 72.20%. In the future, most calcium carbide plants may maintain normal operations, but the increase in开工率 may be limited. PVC plants have many maintenance plans in July and August, so the demand for calcium carbide is expected to decrease. If there is an unexpected reduction in supply or the rising coal price is transmitted to the cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [75]. - Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Caustic Soda: On July 25, the spot price of liquid caustic soda fluctuated slightly. The开工率 of sample enterprises was 84%, up 1.4% from the previous week, and the inventory was 408,400 tons, up 6.38% from the previous week. In the future, the supply is sufficient, and the price has no strong upward driving force [81]. 3.6 Supply - Production Capacity Progress: The production capacity growth rate in the third quarter is 3.18%, and the annual growth rate is expected to be 6.37%. Two ethylene - based plants of Fujian Wanhua and Bohua Development started trial production in July and are expected to achieve mass production in August. Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - based plant is planned to be put into operation in the third quarter [85]. - 开工率 and Maintenance: On July 25, the overall开工率 of PVC powder was 75.81%, up 0.84% from the previous week. There were new maintenance enterprises this week, and some previously maintained enterprises resumed production. The theoretical loss due to parking and maintenance this week was 71,640 tons, down 279 tons from the previous week [87]. 3.7 Import - Export - Import: In June 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63.80%. The cumulative import from January to June was 124,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.51%. The import sources are mainly the United States and Northeast Asia, and the import dependence is about 1% [116]. - Export: In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.61%. The cumulative export from January to June was 1,960,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.20%. The main destination is India. This week, the export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 11.66% week - on - week and increased by 56% year - on - year [116][125]. 3.8 Demand - Downstream开工率: Currently, the downstream开工率 is at a low level compared to the same period. This week, the开工 rates of the profile and film industries improved, while the pipe industry continued to decline. Domestic downstream product enterprises continued to purchase at low prices, resisted high - priced raw materials, and faced seasonal weakening due to high temperatures [137]. - Terminal - Real Estate: From January to June, real estate investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and sales area decreased by 3.5% year - on - year. The real estate market is still in a downturn, and PVC demand may continue to shrink [154]. 3.9 Inventory - Production Enterprises: As of July 24, the available inventory of PVC powder in sample production enterprises was - 467,150 tons, a decrease of 188,900 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory was 312,250 tons, a decrease of 3,250 tons from the previous period [169]. - East and South China: As of July 24, the original sample inventory in East China was 358,900 tons, up 3.97% from the previous period and down 29.50% year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 587,200 tons, up 3.82% from the previous period and down 30.64% year - on - year. The sample inventory in South China was 44,000 tons, up 1.15% from the previous period and down 26.93% year - on - year [169].
PVC周报：反内卷下,关注煤价对PVC煤制成本产业链传导-20250728
Zhe Shang Qi Huo·2025-07-28 03:03