生猪周报:市场预期向好,盘面偏强运行-20250728
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )·2025-07-28 03:01
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot market is expected to experience volatile adjustments. The supply of pigs is likely to increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The positive and potentially strengthening fat - standard price difference may support pig prices by reducing the willingness of farmers to reduce the weight of pigs. Considering the current long - short factors, it is suggested to lightly short the LH2509 contract or configure reverse spreads, but risk control should be emphasized due to the positive macro sentiment [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - Main Contract Basis Situation: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs showed a volatile and upward trend this week [3]. - Price Changes of Each Contract: The prices of far - month contracts showed a strong upward trend [6]. - Monthly Spread Changes: The expectations for far - month contracts have increased. The reverse spread trends of the 9 - 11 and 9 - 01 contracts are obvious [9][12]. 3.2 Spot End - Pig Prices and Slaughter Volume: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, while pig prices continued to decline [15]. - Regional Price Difference: The regional price difference is relatively reasonable [17]. - Fat - Standard Price Difference: The fat - standard price difference is generally in a volatile adjustment. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen seasonally, which may reduce the market's willingness to reduce weight or even encourage weight gain [19]. - Fresh Sales and Gross - Net Price Difference: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [21]. - Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat is strengthening. If it continues, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [23]. - Breeding Profit: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [25]. - Slaughter Weight: The slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether it can reach the level of the same period last year [27]. 3.3 Capacity End - Inventory of Reproductive Sows: At the end of June, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. According to different data sources, the inventory of reproductive sows in relevant samples continued to increase in June [29]. - Sow Culling Situation: The price of culled sows showed a weak trend this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [31]. - Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets: In June, the number of newborn healthy piglets decreased by 1.26% month - on - month, indicating that the number of pigs for slaughter in December will stop increasing and start to decline [33]. - Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm: This week, the prices of 15 - kg piglets and 50 - kg binary sows remained relatively stable [35]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The market is gradually entering the destocking phase for frozen products, and its impact on pig prices has changed from positive to neutral - negative [37]. 3.5 Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, remaining basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively small [40].