黑色：转为震荡格局，关注宏观事件

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal market has shifted to a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to macro - events. For rebar, it is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading; for iron ore, it is expected to move in a volatile manner; for coking coal and coke, a neutral stance of waiting and observing is advised [5][36][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar - Investment Strategy: The rebar market is expected to shift to a volatile pattern. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading. The static valuation has returned to a neutral level. Attention should be paid to the outcomes of Sino - US economic and trade talks, signals from the Politburo meeting, the implementation of crude steel production restrictions, and the situation of coking coal futures position limits [5][6] - Market Review: The price of coking coal increased due to production over - inspection, driving up the price of steel. The spot price of rebar in Hangzhou rose by 200 yuan/ton to 3490 yuan/ton week - on - week, the futures price of the rebar 10 contract rose by 209 yuan/ton to 3356 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly narrowed to 134 yuan [9][14] - Steel Mill Profits: The profits of long - process steel mills expanded, with an estimated profit of about 378 yuan/ton in East China. The profits of short - process steel mills improved, with a profit of about 105 yuan/ton for flat - rate electricity. The profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 63.64% (+3.47) [20] - Supply - Demand Pattern: Rebar production increased by 2.90 tons to 211.96 tons, apparent demand increased by 10.41 tons to 216.58 tons, and inventory decreased by 4.62 tons to 538.64 tons [27] - Valuation: As of last Friday's close, the rebar futures price rose to near the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces, and the static valuation has returned to a neutral level [29] - Key Data/Policy/News: Major events include the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, the upcoming release of a stable growth plan for ten key industries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, a coal mine production inspection notice, and Sino - US economic and trade talks [31] Coking Coal and Coke - Investment Strategy: A neutral stance of waiting and observing is recommended. For coking coal, the short - term supply - demand pattern is tight, and price support is strong. For coke, there is still an expectation of price increases [36][37] - Market Review: Coking coal prices increased, with domestic and foreign coal prices rising. Coke prices continued to rise, with both spot and futures prices increasing [39][55] - Supply - Demand Analysis: For coking coal, supply is affected by factors such as production adjustments in major producing areas, and demand is strong. For coke, supply is temporarily shrinking, and demand is strong, with low inventory levels [36] - Inventory Situation: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased, with upstream de - stocking being obvious. The overall inventory of coke slightly decreased [53][70] Iron Ore - Investment Strategy: The iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner at a high level and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black metal varieties [74] - Market Review: The iron ore futures price adjusted downward from a high level last week. The spot prices of various grades of iron ore increased, and the futures price of the 09 contract rose by 17.5 yuan/ton to 802.5 yuan/ton [74][75] - Supply Analysis: Domestic production has recovered, with an increase in the daily output of iron concentrate powder. Global shipments have slightly increased, with an increase in Brazilian shipments. Port arrivals and port clearance volumes have both declined, and port inventories have increased [89][90][101] - Demand Analysis: The daily output of hot metal is basically flat, steel mills have good profits, and the replenishment rhythm for iron ore is maintained [74] - Inventory Situation: Port inventories of iron ore have increased, and the total inventory of ports and steel mills has also increased [106]